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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Tarik Skubal, Charlie Morton

Is it a stretch to say that Tarik Skubal is one of, if not the only bright spot from the 2022 Detroit Tigers? He has been phenomenal with a sub-3.00 xERA and strong strikeout production with his near 27% K-rate. Skubal has also addressed his inability to limit power which plagued him last season. He’ll be facing a strong Boston Red Sox team tonight, who has been hanging on the outside of the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ in June, accounting for some of the leverage we are seeing on him. Skubal has also had back-to-back poor starts that have resulted in his ERA leaping from 2.33 to 3.13, so do we expect Skubal to return to form tonight? It is not a lock by any means given the formidable opponent, but it is worth a shot backing an expected minimally owned pitcher with a high ceiling in every outing he pitches. 

Charlie Morton will be coming into tonight off of his best performance of his season, with seven scoreless innings while only allowing three hits. Overall, Morton has not been great on the mound as his xERA and xFIP are above 4.00, and he is giving up power at the highest mark of his career as his allowed HardHit% and Barrel% are at career lows. Morton will be seeing the San Francisco Giants, who have not had a productive June as they are on the outside of the bottom ten in wOBA and wRC+ during the month. For Morton during June, although his ERA is still in line with his seasonal numbers, we see his K/9 at a staggering 14.50 through three starts. The Giants also have struck out at the second-highest mark in baseball in June, so Morton will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on his dominant strikeout production as of late. Getting Morton minimally owned coming off his best performance of a season amid a dominant streak of strikeout production against a strikeout-happy team is a play with some substantial upside.