MLB DFS: Yankees, Brewers Top Optimal Stacks for Saturday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Yankees, Brewers

Another slate, another day, the New York Yankees’ stack at the top of the optimal board. It is unfortunate that the Blue Jays’ 28-spot last night obliterated the Yankees’ top optimal positioning, but on most normal nights, the Yankees will prove value. The Yankees are facing Jordan Lyles of the Baltimore Orioles tonight, who doesn’t offer too much opposition for the Yankees-loaded lineup. Lyles has pretty limited strikeout production and an xERA over 5.00, giving him one of the worst xERAs in baseball among qualified pitchers. 

The Yankees’ offense has consistently been first or near the top of the league in most offensive categories throughout the season. Hence, there isn’t anything there for us to worry about the production we expect to see from the Bronx Bombers. Tonight will be the Yankees’ fifth time seeing Lyles this season and in a combined 23.2 innings pitched over four starts, they were able to knock in 12 runs. There is value to be had with this lineup, and we do not expect this stack to be grossly owned by any means, so paying up for the best offense in baseball is a safe play to make with a high ceiling.

The Milwaukee Brewers join the New York Yankees near the top of the optimal board as they’ll be going up against Jose Urena tonight. Urena has had a shocking start to his tenure with the Colorado Rockies over three starts, and he has been fantastic. Over a combined 18.2 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs despite pretty horrible strikeout production with a seasonal rate of 10.6%. Despite having a 2.06 ERA, his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are well over the 4.65 mark, which doesn’t give us too much confidence in sustained success. 

Should the Brewers be worried about him tonight, though? Given that he was horrible over his past few MLB seasons and even worse earlier this year in the minors, it is hard to envision a career turnaround for him as his strikeout rate approaches 10%. The Brewers have been very productive this season with a power upside given their top six ISO rankings. The Brewers are an affordable stack that is projected to see little leverage. Grabbing this low-risk stack against a pitcher that many are just waiting to fall apart is a high upside play.