Daily Fantasy Sports
MLB Daily Analysis
02:04 PM, September 13, 2022
MLB DFS: Yu Darvish, Logan Gilbert Top Leverage Pitchers for Tuesday
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DARVISH SEES DESIRABLE LEVERAGE
Jacob deGrom’s presence on this slate has opened up desirable leverage opportunities for some great pitchers if you want to pivot off of deGrom. Yu Darvish, in particular, finds himself near the top of the leverage board as he will go up against the Seattle Mariners tonight. Darvish has had a dependable season for the Padres, and you know what you will get from him most nights. His real and expected ERA and FIP are all around 3.50, which shows that he typically always gives up something but never gets shelled. We’ve seen Darvish’s strikeout production increase as the season has progressed, but still not to the level we are used to seeing with him.
Seattle has had a solid start to September as they are in the middle of the tightly packed AL Wild Card race, hoping to break their 20-year playoff drought. They have ranked in the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ paired with the third highest ISO ranking in September. Both their Hardhit% and Barrel% are in much lower positions, so it appears they could have had plenty of favorable bounces go their way. Darvish won’t come cheap with his $10,600 salary on DraftKings with a sub-8% ownership projection. Despite the leverage, if you are paying that premium for a pitcher, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have much higher ceilings against weaker overall offenses.
GILBERT IS HOPING TO EXTEND HIS SCORELESS STREAK
Logan Gilbert will be in the opposing dugout as Darvish as he finds himself high up on the leverage board ahead of his outing against the San Diego Padres. Gilbert has pitched well for the Mariners this year, but maybe a little worse than advertised, as his expected ERA jumps to 4.12 from his actual ERA of 3.23. He doesn’t strike out the most batters with his seasonal rate of 22.5%, along with fairing pretty well against opposing power. His allowed HardHit% is noticeably high at a 46.2% mark for the year, so there could be regression on the way. Nonetheless, he is coming in off of back-to-back scoreless outings where he produced nine strikeouts each game, so he has confidence on his side.
It is almost as if the Padres are tempting the Milwaukee Brewers to catch them in the NL Wild Card race with how they’ve been swinging the bats. They haven’t had the start they needed in September, as they rank in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ with an ISO that offers some potential upside going forward in the power department. San Diego has already faced Gilbert back in July, seeing him post a decent outing allowing only a single earned run over five and a third inning. He only had one strikeout in that game which is concerning given some of the horses on this slate. Luckily, Gilbert’s last two outings were phenomenal, so if you look for him to build off that, there is value here with Gilbert, given the leverage and affordable price.
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