We’ll have our eyes on the nation’s capital as the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals match up Wednesday night at Nationals Park. Can Max Scherzer close things out for the home team in the Beltway Series? All signs point to a dominating win for the home team. Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Betting Odds (More at MLB Odds)
Baltimore Orioles: +350
Washington Nationals: -430
Baltimore Orioles +1.5: +164
Washington Nationals -1.5: -196
Over 9: -102
Under 9: -120
What to Watch For
Max is Back:
In Scherzer’s last two inter-league starts, he held both the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals to just one run overall on eight hits in 15 innings.
Last Time Out:
This is Wojchiechowski’s second time out vs the Nationals this season. he pitched five innings back in July, giving up six hits and three runs in a 8-1 loss.
Baltimore is 1-4 in Asher Wojceichowski’s last five starts. Washington is 5-0 in Max Scherzer’s last five starts on five days of rest, and 8-1 in his last nine starts overall.
Betting on the Total:
Slight lean on the over here from sim data, but not enough to make it a strong pick. In Max Scherzer’s last start, he pitched four innings in a 7-1 victory. As explained below, we’re expecting the Nats bats to be aggressive early on. That combined with Scherzer’s dominance should yield an easy win, but tough to project out a confident pick on the total.
The Orioles are looking to Asher Wojciechowski to avoid a winless month. He enters Wednesday’s matchup having gone 0-3 in his last five starts; opponents have 9 HRs off him in those 24 innings. He was above-par, relatively, his last time out vs Tampa Bay, only giving up two hits and two HRs in a 5-2 loss. At this rate, just limiting the number of HRs an opponent gets off the Orioles is a win in itself.
On the other hand, we’ll see Max Scherzer continuing to get back into a rhythm for the Nats. All signs project him to stay in no longer than 80-90 pitches on Wednesday. He is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA in his 12 career starts vs the O’s; Baltimore has just a .147 batting average against him in those previous matchups.
With how poorly the Orioles are playing, and the quality of pitching on the Nationals, it’s tough not to go with a blowout win here. The Nats will look to bounce back after a disappointing loss on Tuesday, and we expect them to be aggressive early vs Wojciechowski.
Recent Accuscore Picks
-8/26: Phillies -130 (W)
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-8/22: Cubs -165 (W)
-8/21: SD-CIN o8.5 (L)