Cincinnati hosts the San Diego Padres Wednesday afternoon at Great American Ball Park as they look for right-hander Luis Castillo to bounce back from his worst start of the season. The Reds and Padres are finishing up a three-game series vs the San Diego Padres.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Betting Odds (More at MLB Odds)
- San Diego: +165
- Cincinnati: -180
- San Diego +1.5: -105
- Cincinnati -1.5: -115
- Over 8.5: -105
- Under 8.5: -115
What to Watch For
Betting on the Money Line:
Odds indicate Cincinnati has a 64 percent chance to win Wednesday afternoon. They win 66 percent of simulations.
The projected score is 6-4, in favor of the Reds.
Cincinnati is 4-1 in Luis Castillo’s last five starts on four days of rest. San Diego is 6-14 in their last 20 game No. 3s of a series.
Rookie Chris Paddack was initially expected to start this game for the Padres, but manager Andy Green decided to go to his bullpen with Paddack already on pace to meet his innings limit of 150 days. He also has not pitched on four days’ rest yet in his first year, and it’s always better to be safe than sorry in situations like this. He’ll open up the next series (Friday) vs Pittsburgh.
Time to Bounce Back:
Luis Castillo gets his seventh straight home start Wednesday. The last time he pitched away from Great America Ball Park was back on July 10 when the Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs. On the season, he’s 11-5 with a 3.10 ERA; at home, he’s 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA. Most impressively, he has held opponents to just a .195 batting average at home. He is, however, coming off his worst performance of the season in which he gave up a career-high 8 runs, career-high 9 hits, and career-high 3 home runs. In his last matchup vs the Padres — back in April of 2019 — Castillo held them to just one run and three hits in six innings.
Head to Head:
Cincinnati won Tuesday’s matchup at home 3-2 after losing the series opener, 3-2.
Luis Castillo is projected to pitch five-to-six innings, giving up two-to-three runs, and five-to-six hits. On average, the Padres score a shade under three runs against Castillo in simulations.
For the Padres, Matthew Strahm is projected to pitch five innings or fewer, giving up three-to-four runs early on six hits and 1+ home run.
Odds indicate there’s a 51 percent chance the total combined score gets to at least 9 runs. That happens in approximately 60 percent of simulations. This is a two-star (out of four) hot trend pick. The average combined score in simulations is 10.3 runs.