The Pittsburgh Pirates get set to host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park Friday night as these teams kick off a three-game series. Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani will look for his third win of the month.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Betting Odds (More at MLB Odds)
- Cincinnati: -108
- Pittsburgh: -108
- Cincinnati +1.5: -225
- Pittsburgh -1.5: +186
- Over 9: -104
- Under 9: -118
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total:
The average combined score in simulations is 10.9 runs. AccuScore would lean towards the OVER in this one. Odds indicate there’s a 51 percent chance the total hits the OVER; that happens in 55+ percent of simulations.
The projected score is 6-5, in favor of the Reds.
Head to Head:
These teams are familiar with each other, having already played 13 times this season. Pirates have won 8 of those matchups.
Numbers to Consider:
The Reds enter this matchup ranked top-10 in most pitching categories, most importantly standing No. 4 in the league in team strikeouts and No. 8 in team WHIP. Even if DeSclafani struggles out the gate, we’re confident in the Reds’ depth behind him.
Pirates’ rookie Mitch Keller gets the start after giving up six runs in 4.1 innings his last time out in a 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. An 8.86 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP in 21.1 innings isn’t going to get the job done. His debuted against the Reds earlier this season; Pirates fans will look for a much better performance than the six runs he gave up that time out in four innings pitched.
Supporting Betting Trends:
The Reds have won four of their last five with DeSclafani starting against a team with a losing record. At the same time, the Pirates have won just 3 of their last 17 games at home.
Anthony DeSclafani is projected to pitch five innings for the Reds, giving up 6 hits and 3 runs. The Pirates only get 0.63 HRs per simulated match off him, though, meaning the runs will be fought for. 2.6 ERA in sims.
For the Pirates, Mitch Keller is projected to pitch five innings as well, averaging a shade fewer than DeSclafani . Keller gives up seven hits and four runs with a 3.6 ERA. The Reds average 1.18 HRs per sim off Keller.
Reds to win, or Reds +1.5.
Just depends on how aggressive you are as a bettor. Cincinnati is projected to be more competitive in AccuScore sims compared to the odds listed at the time of publication. Odds indicate there’s a 52 percent chance the Reds win Friday’s matchup. Simulations have that probability at 59 percent, suggesting even more confidence on the visiting team. Cincinnati winning is a three-star (out of four) hot-trend pick; the side/added value is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.