Talking Trades And Fantasy Baseball Hot Starts Of Jimmy Paredes And Devon Travis
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Another week in the Twitterverse brought plenty of goodies, and it looks like no rants from me this week… well, for now. There's still time. We'll talk Fantasy Baseball hot starts, trades, league setups, DFS and even some awesome time-wasting vines.
@allinkid 14 team standard category H2H. Trade Grilli for Ortiz? Ortiz would replace Mourneau and currently have 5 LT closers plus Wade Davis
— Jake Minnix (@jake9319) April 20, 2015
I'm using this tweet not because I think everyone can relate to a Jason Grilli trade. Although, I will say, unless you're deep at closer like this guy, don't undersell Grilli. He's done this before and looks great so far with the closer's role. This tweet is sort of a PSA to everyone who asks about trades. Don't make me have to tweet you back and start a string because I need more details… well, at the same time don't send me to TwitLonger to read a 200 word tweet.
When evaluating trades, we need to know a couple things: 1) League size and format. 2) Roster size and (only if) weird positional settings. 3) Categories. 4) Replaced players - if lopsided trade, who gets dropped/replaced/is the fill-in etc.
This tweet had it all and he still came well under the 140 character limit. Well done, sir. Well done.
@allinkid 3 hours of surprise RKOs is why God invented Vine.
— Greg Lee (@GregLee77) April 21, 2015
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) April 21, 2015
If you don't watch WWE, then you don't know who Randy Orton is. Well, his finishing move is the
Diamond Cutter RKO, and his "RKO outta nowhere" spurred numerous vine and Instragram posts of everyday people getting "RKO'd outta nowhere." That's what we're talking about here, and it inspired me post to a piece on SportsGrid of the Top 10 vines (just click the link in the tweet). Go watch, laugh, watch again, laugh some more… and find out two hours later that you're still watching and sharing them with friends.
I have Trevor Bauer and Cody Allen. My opponent has David Robertson. THIS is why Quality Starts should replace Wins in fantasy. @allinkid
— Jackson (@Jaxin10) April 21, 2015
I'm surprised that I still need to talk about this every year. Wins are as frustrating as they come in Fantasy. All of that quality work possibly undone by the bullpen and costing you stats or points. There is no other Fantasy category attached to a player that the player has no control over it. You can complain about the saves stat, but at least the pitcher controls whether or not he gets one. That's why all leagues should use Quality Starts instead. Sure, it's not perfect, as a 6.0 IP/3 ER outing is valued the same as a CGSO, but at least you can't lose the stat because the bullpen blew it.
While we're at it, there are a few more league settings we should discuss.
First come, first serve waivers are the worst. They should never be used, and all of these Fantasy sites should be ashamed for making it an available option. Rewarding the lucky soul who happens to be sitting at the computer or quickest with his cell phone browser is nuts, and quite honestly, it's unfair.
Continuing with waivers/rosters, waiver pickups should be at least twice a week and lineups should have daily transactions. You get complaints that "there is just too much to keep up with" and that's why people want weekly moves. Guess what, folks? You can still set your entire week's lineup on Sunday. You don't have to make everyone else suffer because you're too busy. And hey, I really do get the busy schedule. Heck, I've forgotten about waivers in leagues before - but that and injuries are reasons to allow daily moves and multiple waivers. Again, why should a team be penalized the entire week when their first baseman suffers an injury on Monday? Baseball is supposed to reward the most-skilled owner, not the most fortunate.
Speaking of fortune, disabled list spots (DL) should be infinite. Nearly every site prevents you from stashing a healthy player on the DL, and you can have a rule covering that just in case. Penalizing owners for tough luck is beyond wrong. Why should an owner be forced to drop a guy who will return in two weeks just because he ran into some tough luck? Yes, it's not bad enough that the owner has rough luck; let's penalize him more!
Get rid of two catchers and add a second Utility spot instead. I wrote at-length about how terrible two-catcher leagues are, and we're seeing the proof again this year. I forgot to mention that a second Utility spot provides the extra benefit of not hurting the value of a David Ortiz or Chris Carter who are only Utility eligible. Ortiz and Carter would be valued at their true draft values each year instead of falling a few rounds because owners get locked into a roster setup. Oh, and again, you aren't forced to roster a negative-value second catcher!
There are few more we could talk about, but these are the most important ones, and they are changes every league manager should implement.
@allinkid he's balking on Ventura...who be the next two choices?
— Rod Belding (@Beldingsbrother) April 21, 2015
Here’s one added rule for Fantasy leagues, but this is specifically for the owners (and not directed at Rod Belding, but his trade partner). Don't renege on an accepted deal! If you want to guarantee that I'll never talk trades with you again, change the deal or back out after I've said, "Sure, let's do that trade." Doing that is bad form and poor Fantasy sportsmanship… yes, Fantasy sports have sportsmanship… and there are more owners than not that will have the same reaction as I do.
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) April 23, 2015
As always, Master of the Twitterverse isn't only Fantasy Baseball related, and here is some NFL talk - specifically about the NFL schedule release bonanza. I'm sharing this so you can see how pointless it is to "analyze" Strength of Schedule (SOS) for NFL teams, and I'll have a follow-up article about how it's equally as fruitless for Fantasy this week.
@allinkid Just becomes more and more obvious to not start the top pitchers.
— Chris (@tysdad16) April 24, 2015
Another "click here and read" tweet, as this is referring to my year-long study of avoiding high-priced DFS pitchers at DailyRoto.com. So far, doing so is resulting in better DFS scores, and it will be interesting to see if it continues.
@allinkid that's death
— People's champ Walt (@JBurnley2) April 25, 2015
Even some NHL for you! I said overtime playoff hockey was like snorting coke and chasing it with PCP. I can't imaging playing it, and there is nothing like overtime games in the NHL playoffs… unless it's a Game 7… and then, you might as well be riding a bear while killing Nazi zombies with a flame thrower after doing those drugs for a true comparison.
PAVE Your Way to Success
Here the section where we'll be following PAVE (Predictive AVErage) all year. Click here for the full explanation/breakdown and why it can be the key to winning. (Hint: it predicts players' averages similar to how SOBB predicts the success of pitchers). Each week we will focus on significant players and outliers.
As we get deeper into the season, we'll continue to see fewer extreme outliers. The current range goes from .170 to .379, which is actually less extreme than actual averages, which range from .100 (Chris Ianetta) to .419 (DJ LeMahieu).
Chase Utley - Utley continues to be terribly unlucky and one of the best buy-low candidates. Utley has at least 11 HRs and eight SBs in every season (even injury-shortened ones) with a career .284 AVG and .302 BABIP. Utley has been wildly unlucky with a .096 BABIP, even though his LD% isn't terrible (18.4), and that's why his PAVE is .293.
Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been almost as unlucky as Utley, and while I was down on him for 2015, I certainly expected better than a .169 AVG. Murphy's PAVE is .287, so he should turn the corner soon.
(Edit: that three-run homer last night surely helps.)
Carlos Gonzalez - CarGo has always just needed to stay healthy, but so far this year even a healthy Gonzalez isn't helping. Gonzalez has a .197 AVG, despite a 19.6 LD%. His BABIP is unlucky (.204) and he is arguably the best buy-low option out there.
Steve Pearce - Pearce is a great buy-low player too, especially because he has more doubters than your average good player. Pearce hit 21 home runs last year with a .293 AVG. So far, Pearce is batting just .196, but that should improve as his LD% is quite good at 25.6 and the BABIP is low at .216.
Yonder Alonso - Few players scream "sell" more than Alonso… that is, if you can get decent value for him since most will doubt him anyway. It's with good reason too, as Alonso is not only batting .354, but his BABIP is .400 and he has just a 14.3 LD%. Regression is coming, as seen in his .289 PAVE.
Matt Holliday - We know Holliday is a great and reliable player, but he's not going to hit in the mid-.300s. The most telling sign is that Holliday's BABIP is insanely high at .439. His PAVE is still great at .298, but that's more of the average level we can expect.
Devon Travis - The man just won't quit. Travis is in the PAVE lower than AVG quartet, but even a .293 PAVE is rather good. His current average is obviously not sustainable, but with a solid LD% and only semi-lucky BABIP, Travis looks to be one of 2015's steals.
Jimmy Paredes - Why not double up with two stud, out-of-nowhere infielders? Like Travis, Paredes will see his AVG drop - after all, it's only .429 - but his PAVE still sits way up at .352. Even that's high, as Paredes has a smaller sample size than most; but Paredes also has a great 24.1 LD%. So while the AVG and BABIP (.444) will drop, Paredes is looking like another breakout player.
Photo Credit: Keith Allison
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