Why You Need To Be Backing This Player At +4000 To Win The Home Run Crown
The MLB season and the weather are heating up, which means it’s home run season across the league as baseballs continue to fly off the bat. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judgehas taken over the home run race as things stand, but there is still value to be had on the myriad of sluggers looking to chase him down. We look at Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Deversas a potential option to do so at +4000 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
The value comes in when you realize that Devers is heavily underperforming his xHR. He has hit 16 home runs on the season, 1.8 less than his 17.8 xHR, while 11 players sit behind him in xHR with the same or more home runs. Riley, who he is tied with in xHR, has 18 home runs and sits with slightly shorter odds at +3200. Add in that the Red Sox still have six games at the Baltimore Orioles, seven games at the New York Yankees, and a pair of games at the Cincinnati Reds, three of those ballparks rank in the top five for home runs for lefties above average based on a three-year rolling average.
Of course, Judge is the one who throws a wrench into things here. The Yankees outfielder is setting a blazing pace with 25 dingers in 60 games thus far on 27.2 xHR. He hasn’t slowed down much, with seven already in the first half of June. You never root for injuries, but Judge’s durability has been his most significant weakness over the years. With just two seasons with 112 or more games played of the six seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season), he has been in the major leagues; he may find himself on the injured list in 2022. That could blow this race wide open, and with such massive odds on a player with the second-most expected home runs in the league, Devers feels worth a flyer at 40-to-1.
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