ADAM ANSELL’S TOP 25 FOR TEXAS
1. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth ran into some bad luck at Martinsville, finishing 14thdespite running inside the Top 5 for most of the race. In 21 starts at Texas Motor Speedway, Kenseth has two wins (2002, 2011), 12 Top 5s and 15 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 8.3. He’s led at least one lap in each of his last five starts. He’s qualified fourth-or-better six times. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Kenseth leads all competitors in Driver Rating (106.6), Average Running Position (9.4) and Laps in the Top 15 (4,174). He’s led at least 10 laps in all but one event this season. He’s logged five-straight Top 5s at TMS with an Average Finish of 3.2. Kenseth will come at a great value in Tiered/Grouping formats and needs to be in all lineups at one of his best tracks.
2. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson won his second race of 2013 in dominating fashion, leading 346 of 500 laps at Martinsville. In 19 Texas starts, Johnson has two wins (2007, 2012), nine Top 5s, 14 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 9.3. He led 156 (April 2012) and 168 laps (November 2012) in his starts last season. He’s started fourth-or-better on the grid four times. Johnson ranks second in DR (103.5) and third in ARP (11.1). His Average Finish of 7.3 through six races is hard to ignore, but Texas isn’t one of Johnson’s best tracks. If you can afford the Tiered/Grouping format start he won’t disappoint. In all other formats deploy No. 48 as usual.
3. Kyle Busch: Busch posted his fourth-straight Top 5, leading 56 laps en route to a fifth-place finish at The Paper Clip. In 15 starts at TMS, Busch has five Top 5s and six Top 10s with an Average Finish of 14.9. Busch led 80 laps in the November 2012 race. Busch ranks fifth in DR (98.7) and ARP (11.8). After 34th and 24th-place finishes to open the season, Busch has an Average Finish of third and led at least 27 laps in the four subsequent events. The fact that he’s a middle tiered driver in Tiered/Grouping formats is a clear oversight and should be taken advantage of by Fantasy owners everywhere.
4. Greg Biffle: The Biff started 22nd and finished ninth at Martinsville. In 18 starts at Texas, Biffle has two wins (2005, 2012), seven Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 15.9. In his April 2012 victory, he led 90 laps. He’s led at least seven laps in five of his last six starts. Biffle ranks third in DR (103.4) and seventh in ARP (12.2). He leads all drivers in Laps Led (732), Fastest Laps Run (455) and Average Green Flag Speed (173.056 mph). He’s been very consistent to begin 2013, finishing no worse than 17th in any race. Texas is one of his better tracks and he’s the defending champion of his event. He’s a must-start in Tiered/Grouping formats.
5. Carl Edwards: Edwards’ 15th-place finish doesn’t look great on paper, but considering the beating he took up and down the track at Martinsville it is very impressive. In 16 TMS starts, Edwards has three wins (2005, 2008 sweep), five Top 5s and seven Top 10s with an Average Finish of 15.1. He’s led at least three laps in two of his last four starts. He’s qualified inside the Top Four on the grid three times. Edwards ranks sixth in DR (98.3) and in ARP (11.8). He has three Top 5s in 2013 and in those three races his place differential is +45. He will come at a nice value in all formats.
6. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski failed to lead a lap for the second-straight race, but did get back into the Top 10 with a sixth-place finish. In nine Texas starts, Keselowski has one Top 5 with an Average Finish of 22.7. He’s led at least two laps in three of his last four starts, including 75 laps in his October 2012 second-place finish. Keselowski ranks 23rd in DR (70.1) and in ARP (21.0). The numbers aren’t great, but Kez knows this track well, logging five Top 5s in his last six Nationwide starts there. He can be safely used in all formats.
7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon finally closed out a race, finishing third in what was his most complete performance of 2013. In 24 starts at Texas, Gordon has one win (2009), eight Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and two poles with an Average Finish of 16.1. Gordon led two laps in his fourth-place finish in this race a year ago. He’s qualified fourth-or-better seven times. Gordon ranks 10th in DR (91.9) and in ARP (13.7). He’s only led laps in two of his last four starts, but the numbers aren’t everything in this case. Gordon will come at a solid value this weekend because of the recent slide at Texas. Savvy Fantasy owners will take advantage.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished outside the Top 10 (24th) for the first time this season at Martinsville. In 21 TMS appearances, Earnhardt Jr. has one win (2000), three Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and two poles with an Average Finish of 13.6. He’s led at least one lap in 12 starts. Earnhardt Jr. ranks eighth in DR (92.7) and fourth in ARP (11.5). He’s logged four consecutive Top 10s at Texas (Average Finish of 8.3) and is a safe bet to get back in the business of Top 10s under the prime time lights.
9. Kasey Kahne: Kahne finished in fourth-place at Martinsville, giving him three Top 5s in his last four Cup starts. In 17 starts at TMS, Kahne has one win (2006), four Top 5s, five Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 19.2. He led five laps in the November 2011 race. He’s started inside the Top Four on the grid five times. Kahne ranks 15th in DR (83.2) and 16th in ARP (15.6). He has an Average Finish of fourth over his last four starts. He’s a sneaky start in Tiered/Grouping formats.
10. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer ran his best race of 2013 at Martinsville, finishing in second-place while running 83.4% Laps in the Top 15. In 14 starts at Texas, Bowyer has three Top 5s and eight Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.8. He led 44 laps in the Spring 2011 race. Bowyer ranks ninth in DR (92.5) and in ARP (12.8). He’s been quiet on the bonus point front, but Bowyer is a consistent performer and will be an excellent value play every single week because of his presence in the upper Tier.
11. Tony Stewart: Two wins (2006, 2011), six Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 12.7 in 22 starts at TMS. 101.4 DR.
12. Brian Vickers: Has finished eighth (Bristol) and 11th (Martinsville) in two 2013 Cup starts. 63.2 DR.
13. Kevin Harvick: Three Top 5s and 10 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.5 in 20 Texas appearances. 84.7 DR.
14. Mark Martin: One win (1998), eight Top 5s and 13 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 13.9 in 24 starts at Texas. 88.6 DR.
15. Paul Menard: Three Top 10s (Las Vegas, Bristol and Auto Club) in his last four Cup starts. 68.2 DR.
16. Kurt Busch: 89.0 DR.
17. Jamie McMurray: 75.8.
18. Marcos Ambrose: 82.7.
19. Joey Logano: 65.5.
20. Ryan Newman: 70.8.
21. Aric Almirola
22. Martin Truex Jr.
23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24. Jeff Burton
25. Juan Pablo Montoya
Sleepers & Bargains
1. Casey Mears: Average Finish of 15.3 in his last three Cup starts with a place differential of +25 at Martinsville.
2. Austin Dillon: Finished 21st in his last Cup start (Las Vegas); has an Average Finish of 5.5 in two Nationwide Series starts at TMS.
3. Danica Patrick: Continues to improve week-to-week, and was especially impressive after wrecking early at Martinsville.
4. J.J. Yeley: Finished 27th three straight races, but has a place differential of +28 in that span.
5. David Ragan: Posted back-to-back Top 10s at TMS in the November 2010 (eighth) and April 2011 (seventh) races.
2013 NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Lineup for Texas (Salary Cap)
Jimmie Johnson $27.75
Matt Kenseth $27.75
Kyle Busch $27.25
Casey Mears $10.00
Austin Dillon $5.75
Yahoo! Fantasy Sports Auto Racing Lineup (Tiered/Grouping Format)*
A-List – Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon
B-List – Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brian Vickers
C-List – Austin Dillon, Casey Mears
*Starters will be decided after qualifying @RotoExpertsAA