Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Betting Model 5-Star Preview

The Miami Heat will look to close out their series tonight with the Atlanta Hawks as they host them for Game 5 from FTX Arena.

Trae Young and the Hawks tried to make a series out of it after cutting the deficit to 2-1 in Game 3, but ultimately fell 110-86 in Game 4 to give Miami a 3-1 series edge. Jimmy Butler led all scorers in Game 4 with 36 points, while the Heat held Young to just nine points in 36 minutes of action.

The Heat will look to wrap things up tonight at home, where they put together a 29-12 record this year, and a 2-0 record this series.

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Atlanta Hawks (1-3) | Miami Heat (3-1)

Date: 04/26/2022 | Time: 07:00 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline Open: Hawks +240/ Heat -300 | Current: Hawks +235/ Heat -290

Spread Open: Hawks +7/ Heat -7 | Current: Hawks +7/ Heat -7

Game Total Open: 218 | Current: 217

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Atlanta Hawks +49000

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +550

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Analysis

Even with Miami dominating the majority of this series and being the superior team, the Hawks haven’t exactly laid over, they just haven’t been able to find answers to make this closer. There’s a reason the Heat are one of the best teams in basketball and were able to win the Eastern Conference regular-season title and they’re demonstrating that with their first-round performance against the Hawks.

The expectation heading into this series was that the Heat would likely finish off the Hawks in five games and that’s exactly what we’re on pace to do tonight. The SportsGrid betting model suggests that the Heat have a 53.09% win probability for Game 5, which might be closer than you’d have expected. The Heat played a great road game in Game 4 and held the Hawks to just 40% shooting from the floor, but the model clearly expects a bounce-back performance from Atlanta in this spot because it has the Hawks as a five-star play on both the moneyline and spread.

Even if you can’t bring yourself to bet the Hawks to win this game outright there’s no reason to fear backing Atlanta with the spread tonight.

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Atlanta Hawks (46.91%) vs Miami Heat (53.09%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: ATL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: ATL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: UNDER 1.5 Stars