Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Betting Model Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics will head back to the Fiserv Forum tonight, with the Bucks having a chance to move onto the Eastern Conference Finals.

Milwaukee took a 3-2 series lead on Wednesday, thanks to a 110-107 victory where the defending NBA Champions outscored the Celtics by 12 points in the fourth quarter. Giannis Antetokounmpo led all scorers with 40 points, while Jayson Tatum responded with 34 for the Celtics.

Boston’s Robert Williams remains questionable for this contest while Khris Middleton is out for the Bucks.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks NBA Game Information

Boston Celtics (6-3) | Milwaukee Bucks (7-3)

Date: 05/13/2022 | Time: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin | Venue: Fiserv Forum

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Celtics +1.5/ Bucks -1.5 | Current: Celtics +1.5/ Bucks -1.5

Game Total Open: 212 | Current: 210.5

Moneyline Open: Celtics +105/ Bucks -125 | Current: Celtics +102/ Bucks -120

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +1000

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Milwaukee Bucks +400

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Analysis

It’s interesting to note that the Celtics were actually more efficient in Game 5 but ultimately blew a fourth-quarter lead on a night when they shot 51.2% from the floor, while also holding the Bucks to just 43.5%. Milwaukee was better from three and of course, that plays a factor. Even more impactful was Jrue Holiday who had one of his best games of the postseason with 24 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists, while clinching the game in the dying seconds with his loan steal of the contest off the heels of his incredible block on Marcus Smart moments earlier with the Bucks up one.

Without Middleton in the lineup, the Bucks need more secondary scoring and they were able to get that from Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton, who combined for 27 points in the victory.

The SportsGrid betting model likes the road team in this spot tonight, where it gives the Celtics a 64.56% win probability. It also really likes Boston with the spread, where the model has the Celtics as a five-star rating, the same as the moneyline. If it weren’t for a poor fourth quarter, you could make the argument the Celtics would be entering Game 6 leading the series, instead, it’s the Bucks who have a chance to close things out at home. With that being said, this Celtics team has been a resilient one all year long which is why we’re backing them on the moneyline and spread.

In terms of the total, the model also has another strong pick, as over is another five-star play. The line for Game 6 is currently set at 210.5 after opening at 212, and so far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 190, 195, 204, 224, and 217, progressively more scoring as the series has moved forward, which also screams over as they’ve surpassed tonight’s number in each of the past two games.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Boston Celtics (64.56%) vs Milwaukee Bucks (35.44%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!