Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5 Betting Model Preview

The Boston Celtics’ and Golden State Warriors’ best-of-seven NBA Finals series shifts back to California for a crucial Game 5 Monday from the Chase Center.

So far, the teams have alternated wins, which saw the Warriors pick up a Game 4 victory by a score of 107-97.

Stephen Curry led all scorers with 43 points for Golden State, while Jayson Tatum had 23 points for the Celtics. Robert Williams is listed as questionable for the Celtics, while Otto Porter Jr. and Andre Iguodala are questionable for the Warriors.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Game Information

Boston Celtics (14-8) | Golden State Warriors (14-6)

Date: June 13, 2022 | Time: 09:00 p.m. ET

Location: San Francisco, California | Venue: Chase Center

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline Open: Celtics +140 / Warriors -160 | Current: Celtics +142 / Warriors -172

Spread Open: Celtics +3.5 / Warriors -3.5 | Current: Celtics +4 / Warriors -4

Game Total Open: 212 | Current: 210.5

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +125

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors -150

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Analysis 

The NBA Finals have been a continuation of what’s already transpired in the postseason, many lopsided games. Game 4 in this series was the fourth matchup between the Warriors and Celtics that was decided by double digits. After suffering an injury to his foot at the end of Game 3, Curry returned with a vengeance in Game 4, taking over the contest. If he can stay hot, it could spell trouble for the Celtics with the series shifting back to Golden State. The Celtics are still one of the top defensive teams in the association, but when Curry’s shooting 50% from three, he’s hard to stop no matter how much pressure you put on him. 

Even after a decisive victory in Game 4 and the Warriors headed home, the SportsGrid betting model likes the Celtics for tonight’s Game 5, giving them a 79.63% win probability, along with a five-star rating on the moneyline. Both teams have been good at making adjustments after the other has picked up victories, which could be good news for the visitors. Williams and Marcus Smart have played a significant role defensively for the Celtics and will be counted on heavily again. In Game 4, the Warriors shot 44% from the floor, while the Celtics were held to just 40%. The Warriors are listed as four-point favorites on the spread, but the model likes the Celtics there too. There’s clearly an expectation from the model tonight that the trend of alternating wins continues.

With the total, the line is currently set at 210.5. In this series, there have been point totals of 228, 195, 216, and 204. The model continues to expect points to be scored, giving the over 212.5 a five-star rating. Like both teams alternating wins, they’ve also alternated going over the number, which is something you should expect again in Game 5.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Boston Celtics (79.63%) vs. Golden State Warriors (20.37%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER – 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!