Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 Betting Model Preview

The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are deadlocked at two after a nice performance by the Mavs in Game 4, with Game 5 going back to the desert tonight.

The Mavericks posted a 111-101 victory over the Suns in Game 4, thanks to a team-high 26 points from Luka Doncic. Devin Booker led all scorers in Game 4 with 35 points, while Dorian Finney-Smith played a key role for Dallas with 24 points in the victory. The difference in Game 4 was the Mavs’ ability to shoot from three, where they shot 45.5%, compared to 36% by the Suns.

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns NBA Game Information

Dallas Mavericks (5-4) | Phoenix Suns (6-3)

Date: 05/10/2022 | Time: 10:00 PM

Location: Phoenix, Arizona | Venue: Footprint Center

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Mavericks +5.5/ Suns -5.5 | Current: Mavericks +6 (-108)/ Suns -6 (-112)

Game Total Open: 213.5 | Current: 213

Moneyline Open: Mavericks +190/ Suns -230 | Current: Mavericks +215/ Suns -260

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +1800

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Phoenix Suns +330

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Analysis 

There was somewhat of an expectation that the Suns were going to handle the Mavericks with ease, but Dallas has fought back on home court and evened the series as we head into tonight’s Game 5.

The Mavericks have needed depth scoring and they got just that in Game 4, which is one of the key reasons this series is currently deadlocked. Six Mavericks players scored in double-figures and they were efficient shooting threes, which is what Dallas needs to do if they’re going to pull off the upset. Chris Paul was a non-factor in Game 4 and fouled out after just 23 minutes, where he tallied just five points and seven assists.

The SportsGrid betting model likes what it’s seen from the Mavericks over the last two games and gives them a 69.59% win probability for tonight’s Game 5. The model is all over the Mavs in this spot, also giving them a five-star rating on the moneyline, and a five-star rating on the spread. The spread has gone up slightly since it opened, up to 6 points in favor of the Suns, which you can certainly look at as too many points in this spot. The Mavericks should feel positive after their last two performances in this series, and you’re getting some solid value on the moneyline with them as well, which the model directly supports.

In terms of the total, the model also has another strong lean here, giving the Over a 4.5-star rating tonight. So far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 235, 237, 197, and 212, with tonight’s line currently set at 213. This number feels about right with what we’ve seen in the four matchups and there’s a definite lean towards the over in this spot, especially for a Suns team that should ultimately shoot better at home in Game 5.

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks (69.59%) vs Phoenix Suns (30.41%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DAL 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 4.5 Stars