Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Betting Model Preview

The Dallas Mavericks will look to close out their first-round series on the road tonight in Utah, as they enter this Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead over the Jazz.

Luka Doncic and the Mavs put the Jazz on the brink of elimination in Game 5 after a 102-77 dominating victory. Doncic poured in a game-high 33 points in the win, while Jalen Brunson continued his great series and added 24.

Donovan Mitchell had some injury question marks about his status ahead of Game 6, but he’s expected to play tonight.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz NBA Game Information

Dallas Mavericks (3-2) | Utah Jazz (2-3)

Date: 04/28/2022 | Time: 10:00 PM

Location: Salt Lake City, Utah | Venue: Vivint Arena

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Mavericks +3/ Jazz -3 | Current: Mavericks -1 (-106)/ Jazz +1 (-114)

Game Total Open: 211 | Current: 210.5

Moneyline Open: Mavericks +124/ Jazz -146 | Current: Mavericks -116/ Jazz -106

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +1600

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Utah Jazz +6000

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Analysis

Since Luka Doncic has returned to the lineup for the Mavericks, he’s put up exceptional numbers, averaging 31.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, as the series has clearly shifted in their favor as a result. Even though the Jazz have won two games in this series, they just haven’t been able to find any consistency on a game-to-game basis, which has been a problem for them in the playoffs in years past as well. The Mavericks seem to be getting healthy and coming together at the right time of the year and that makes them a problem in the West, with one of the best players in basketball taking his game to another level.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the visiting Mavericks a 59.55% win probability for tonight’s Game 6, which is exactly the type of trend this series has followed. Game 5 saw a blowout in favor of the Mavericks and it sort of felt like the Jazz had no answers moving forward in this series, which points towards Dallas in this spot tonight. The model gives the Mavericks a four-star rating on the moneyline to close out this series, which should inspire some confidence in Doncic & Company tonight.

The total has also been something to consider in this series, with the model strongly backing the over in this Game 6 with a five-star rating. What we’ve seen in this series totals of 192, 214, 244, 199, and 179, with tonight’s line being set at 211, before dropping slightly to 210.5.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Dallas Mavericks (59.55%) vs Utah Jazz (40.45%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DAL 4 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DAL 2 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars