Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Betting Model Preview

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets will face off for Game 5 of their first-round series tonight, with the Warriors looking to close things out.

The Nuggets extended the series on Sunday when they picked up a 126-121 victory in Game 4. Nikola Jokic posted a game-high 37 points for Denver, while both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry eclipsed the 30-point mark for the Warriors.

Five Nuggets players scored in double figures in Game 4 and the Nuggets will clearly need more of the same from their supporting cast if they have any hope of sending this series back to Denver for Game 6.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors NBA Game Information

Denver Nuggets (1-3) | Golden State Warriors (3-1)

Date: 04/27/2022 | Time: 10:00 PM

Location: San Francisco, California | Venue: Chase Center

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline Open: Denver Nuggets +320/ Warriors -400 | Current: Nuggets +310/ Warriors -390

Spread Open: Nuggets +8.5/ Warriors -8.5 | Current: Nuggets +8.5 (-112)/ Warriors -8.5 (-108)

Game Total Open: 225.5 | Current: 225.5

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Denver Nuggets +24000

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors +320

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Analysis

The Nuggets fought hard in Game 4 and were able to pick up the victory, but the Warriors will likely have an answer for them as we head into Game 5 tonight at the Chase Center. Even in defeat, Golden State still shoot 50% from the floor in Game 4, but the Nuggets went over that mark as they shot 56.2%, including 48.4% from three. Denver will likely need a similar approach for Game 5, but is it entirely realistic to expect them to shoot that well from three again? They certainly didn’t bring that element to the table early on in this series, so it will be interesting to see if that hot streak carries over tonight.

The SportsGrid betting model does have faith in the Nuggets to recapture some of that Game 4 magic, as it gives Denver a 58.34% win probability for Game 5 and also loves them on both the spread and moneyline, where Denver boasts five-star ratings. The Nuggets did cover an even higher number (+9) in their Game 3 defeat. It’s hard to say if Denver has enough to stay alive in this Game 5 tonight, but there’s certainly a realistic case to be made for them to keep the game within striking distance and cover the spread.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Denver Nuggets (58.34%) vs Golden State Warriors (41.66%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: DEN 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: DEN 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: UNDER 2 Stars