Fantasy Basketball: Cavalier Conundrum
Relax. Seriously. Take a step back and stop projecting current numbers. Don’t extrapolate the small sample size and assume that the entire season has already been lost.. Everything is going to be OK, I promise.
“The Decision,” remember that? It was the offseason heading into the 2010-2011 season and this LeBron James character called a news conference. Jim Gray was there; there was talk about a Boys and Girls Club, and you stopped whatever you were doing. Remember?
Now, do you remember any Fantasy owners of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade that regretted their decision to draft a member of the first Big Three? I can’t imagine that you do, as they returned strong value, no matter how high you drafted them (most owners drafted Bosh at a discounted rate). Let me refresh your memory as to how that season started … and how it ended.
Miami Heat through November 5, 2010
[caption id="attachment_84084" align="alignright" width="300"] You can trade away all your shares in the Cleveland Cavaliers, but only if you like losing in Fantasy Basketball. Photo Credit: Erik Drost [/caption]
- 45.3 percent from the field
- 26.1 percent on 3’s
- 20.3/7.7/5 (points/assists/rebounds)
Rest of season (starting November 6th)
- 51.44 percent from the field
- 33.1 percent on 3’s
Key notes: His scoring rose 40.9 percent and rebounding average rose 54 percent
- 46.9 percent from the field
- 33.3 percent on 3’s
Rest of season
- 50.2 percent from the field
- 28.8 percent on 3’s
Key notes: His scoring rose 10.3 percent and the assist average rose 21.1 percent
- 44.8 percent from the field
- Didn’t enter Miami as a three point shooter
Rest of season
- 49.0 percent from the field
Key note: His scoring rose 43.6 percent
At this point in the season, the Heat had dropped two games, one to a fringe playoff squad with a superstar and another to a legit contender. Sound familiar? Let’s take a look at where the Cavs stand and what a similar progression would suggest is obtainable for the next 78 games.
Cleveland Cavaliers through November 5, 2014
- 41.3 percent from the field
- 41.2 percent on 3’s
ROS improvements (given gains of Heat players in 2010): 33.5 points and 5.1 rebounds
- 40.3 percent from the field
- 26.3 percent on 3’s
ROS improvements (given gains of Heat players in 2010): 24.3 points and 2.5 assists (I’ll gladly take the “over” on the assist number, playing with James has resulted in assist spikes, not to mention Irving is still 22 years old whereas Wade had already established his game).
- 36.4 percent from the field
ROS improvement (given gains of Heat players in 2010): 25.6 points
Obviously there is no guarantee that the 2014 Cavaliers follow the exact trajectory of the 2010 Heat from a statistical standpoint, but it is a similar situation and LeBron James is still the best player on planet Earth. There is no denying that this team is only going to improve, both for Fantasy purposes and in “real” life, thus making it far too early to panic if you bought in. James is still a top overall Fantasy option, Irving a Top 6-8 point guard, and Love a Top 4 center. Don’t overreact and make an irrational move … you’ll regret it.
Be the first to know
Want FREE Fantasy and Gaming Advice and Savings Delivered to your Inbox? Sign up for our Newsletter.