Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Betting Model Preview

The Miami Heat will look to take a 3-0 lead on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight as the series shifts to the City of Brotherly love for Games 3 and 4.

Jimmy Butler and the Heat took a convincing 2-0 series lead on Wednesday by a score of 119-103. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 23 points, while Tyrese Maxey posted a game-high 34 points, but it wasn’t enough in the losing effort.

Joel Embiid is currently listed as out for tonight’s Game 3, but his status is still able to change if there’s the progress made ahead of tip-off. Kyle Lowry is more likely to make his return for the Heat with his status listed as questionable.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers NBA Game Information

Miami Heat (5-1) | Philadelphia 76ers (4-3)

Date: 05/06/2022 | Time: 07:00 PM

Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Venue: Wells Fargo Center

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds

Spread Open: Heat +1/ 76ers -1 | Current: Heat -3 (-112)/ 76ers +3 (-108)

Game Total Open: 211 | Current: 210

Moneyline Open: Heat -105/ 76ers -115 | Current: Heat -144/ 76ers +122 

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +460

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +6000

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Analysis

The 76ers haven’t been the same team without Joel Embiid on the floor. Even with a dominant performance from Tyrese Maxey in Game 2 the Heat still put together a 16-point Game 2 victory. It’s clear that it’s going to be difficult for the 76ers to get on the board in this series without Embiid in the lineup.

The line for Game 2 was in favor of the Heat from anywhere between eight and nine points, so you can certainly see the line movement that shifting the series to Philadelphia has caused. It’s hard to pull off three straight victories against a team as deep as the 76ers, but their fate will likely come down to whether or not Embiid is able to play any minutes tonight.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the visiting Heat a 56.35% win probability for tonight’s Game 3, and that’s the kind of trend we’ve seen so far in this series from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Even with the Heat having an above 50% win probability, there isn’t a lot of confidence in them from the model in terms of the moneyline or spread, with a Heat lean just two stars on the moneyline and one star on the spread.

With that being said, there does look to be an edge to be had in Game 3 with the total. The total for tonight is set at 210 and the model gives a five-star rating towards the over. The first two games in this series have seen 198 and 222 points scored, so the over is definitely something you should keep an eye on between the Heat and 76ers tonight, especially after we saw a much more offensive Game 2.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Miami Heat (56.35%) vs Philadelphia 76ers (43.65%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: MIA 2 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: MIA 1 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars