Reality Check: With Their ‘Backs Against The Wall,’ The Miami Heat Are Still Favored To Win The NBA Championship

  • Matt Rudnitsky

The San Antonio Spurs lead the Miami Heat 3-2 in the 2013 NBA Finals! Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan are just one win away from a fifth NBA title!

Except that they are playing the Miami Heat. The ones that have LeBron James and awful, shirtless fans. The Spurs, even up 3-2, are underdogs, despite the “Spurs are back in control!” headlines you are currently reading.

This is mainly because of the NBA’s odd 2-3-2 series format, which sucks. The Heat play two straight games on the road. They were 37-4 in the regular season at home. They are seven-point favorites in Game 6. That’s a very large number. It implies well over a 70% chance of victory. If they win, Game 7 will be set at a similar number. The implied odds of Miami winning the series are about 55%. Even though they need just one win in two games, the Spurs are underdogs.

Obviously, though, this is just the opinion of oddsmakers and the betting market, and it’s not necessarily correct. The Spurs already took a game in Miami. So did the Bulls. So did the Pacers. And, as you know, a 45% chance is still quite a high chance. We’ll see. This should be fun.

Then again, LeBron James has an updated 38% chance of wetting his bed again during his Tuesday pregame nap, which would adjust the game’s odds in San Antonio’s favor.

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