Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Betting Model Preview

The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers will face off tonight for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal from FTX Arena in Miami.

Tyler Herro picked up the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award this week and also added a team-high 25 points in Miami’s 106-92 Game 1 victory. Tobias Harris led the 76ers with 27 points in the losing effort, as they were without Joel Embiid and are expected to miss him once again tonight.

Miami was dominant at home this year during the regular season, where they boasted a record of 29-12, and are now 4-0 there this postseason.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Philadelphia 76ers (4-3) | Miami Heat (5-1)

Date: 05/04/2022 | Time: 07:30 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: 76ers +8.5/Heat -8.5 | Current: 76ers +8/Heat -8

Game Total Open: 206.5 | Current: 207.5

Moneyline Open: 76ers +330/Heat -435 | Current: 76ers +310/Heat -390

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +3200

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +500

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Analysis

It’s no secret that the 76ers are in a tough spot without Joel Embiid, as they really had no answer in the paint for Bam Adebayo, who posted 24 points and 12 rebounds in the Heat’s Game 1 victory. The 76ers tried multiple options to limit Adebayo and none of them were successful, so it’s going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers and company adjust for Game 2.

The Heat held the 76ers to 43% shooting in Game 1, but Miami didn’t shoot much better at 43.5%, which could be troublesome for Philadelphia if the Heat can find their shooting stroke. James Harden was fine in Game 1 but he doesn’t have that burst anymore to make him elite and that’s causing plenty of issues for this 76ers team without Embiid.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the Miami Heat a 56.71% win probability for Game 2, but it also is extremely high on the 76ers in terms of the moneyline and spread, giving them a 5-star pick for both. Eight points is a lot for the Heat to cover in this game, which is what the line is currently set at, so you can certainly make the case that Philadelphia will make adjustments and be able to cover that number, especially as the more desperate team. They’ll likely need much more from Harden and Tyrese Maxey if they are to make this a game.

Looking at the total, the model also gives an OVER play a 5-star rating tonight, with the line currently set at 207.5, after opening up at 206.5. Game 1 of this series saw 198 points scored, while during the regular season when these two clubs collided, we saw point totals of  197, 207, 181, and 219.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Philadelphia 76ers (43.29%) vs Miami Heat (56.71%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: PHI 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: PHI 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars