Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Betting Model Preview

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are set to host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal tonight from FTX Arena. The Heat enter this series after defeating the Atlanta Hawks in five games, while the 76ers held on to beat the Toronto Raptors in six.

Joel Embiid is expected to miss the first two games of this series in Miami with a right orbital fracture and a mild concussion. The Heat and 76ers alternated victories in their season series this year and both ended up with two wins in four meetings.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat NBA Game Information

Philadelphia 76ers (4-2) | Miami Heat (4-1)

Date: 05/02/2022 | Time: 07:30 PM

Location: Miami, Florida | Venue: FTX Arena

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Moneyline, Spread, Total and Odds

Moneyline Open: 76ers +160/ Heat -195 | Current: 76ers +270/ Heat -335

Spread Open: 76ers +4.5/ Heat -4.5 | Current: 76ers +7.5/ Heat -7.5

Game Total Open: 207 | Current: 208.5

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Philadelphia 76ers +1600

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +650

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Analysis

It’s pretty evident here that the 76ers are going to have a difficult time in at least the first two games of this series without their star center Joel Embiid in the lineup. Embiid was a massive factor in the 76ers first-round series win against Toronto and that spells good news for Bam Adebayo in this spot, who should be able to feast in the paint.

The Heat will also be shorthanded for at least Game 1 of this series, as Kyle Lowry will miss Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. Heat guard Gabe Vincent played a nice role in place of Lowry in the final pair of games against the Hawks, but Lowry should be close to a return and may potentially dress for Game 2.

After Embiid was ruled out for Game 1, we saw some line movement with the spread, which opened up at -4.5 in favor of the Heat and has already risen to -7.5.

Looking at the SportsGrid betting model, the home team Miami Heat has a 59.37% win probability for tonight’s Game 1, but the model actually strongly likes the 76ers on both the moneyline and spread, giving them a 5-star rating on the moneyline and a 4.5-star rating on the spread.

Now it’s not unreasonable to think that the Heat have a significant advantage without Embiid in the lineup, but 7.5 points is a lot on the spread and that should be a number you look at in favor of the 76ers being able to cover. In terms of the total, the number is currently set at 208.5 and the model suggests the over is a five-star play. During the regular season when these two clubs collided, we saw point totals of  197, 207, 181, and 219.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Philadelphia 76ers (40.63%) vs Miami Heat (59.37%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: PHI 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: PHI 4.5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars