Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Model Preview

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11:10 AM, May 6, 2022

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Model Preview

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The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks will collide for Game 3 of their Western Conference series tonight from the American Airlines Center.

Chris Paul led the Suns to a Game 2 victory by a score of 129-109 to give Phoenix a 2-0 edge in the series. Paul posted 28 points to go along with eight assists, while Devin Booker poured in a team-high 30 points. Luka Doncic once again had himself a game with 35 points, but it wasn’t enough for the Mavericks to even keep the contest close.

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Game Information

Phoenix Suns (5-2) | Dallas Mavericks (4-3)

Date: 05/06/2022 | Time: 09:30 PM

Location: Dallas, Texas | Venue: American Airlines Center

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Suns -1/ Mavericks +1 | Current: Suns -1 (-108)/ Mavericks +1 (-112)

Game Total Open: 218.5 | Current: 219

Moneyline Open: Suns -116/ Mavericks -102 | Current: Suns -110/ Mavericks -106

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Phoenix Suns +200

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Dallas Mavericks +5500

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Analysis

The Suns had a bit of a scare in their opening-round series victory against the New Orleans Pelicans, but they’ve found a lot more success in Round 2 against the Dallas Mavericks, where they’ve won two straight games. Phoenix shot an absurd 64.5% from the floor in Game 2, which also included 52% from three, and that’s the type of shooting that will lead to a big victory like they had in Game 2.

The Mavericks were still able to shoot above 40% from three in the losing effort, but they’ll need more efficiency and better defensive performance if they hope to cut the series deficit in half tonight. It’s become clear that even with these elite efforts from Doncic, who’s combined for 80 points in the first two games, they need more from their supporting cast than they’ve given in thus far.

The SportsGrid betting model gives the home team Mavericks a 51.70% win probability for tonight’s Game 2, but there’s hardly any confidence in them on the spread or moneyline. The Mavericks are just a 0.5-star rating on the moneyline and a 1.5-star rating on the spread, which shows there isn’t exactly a ton of data pointing to them in this spot tonight, so either side might be a pass. With the spread having the Suns as one-point road favorites, it’s essentially picking the winner of this game outright, meaning you should likely side with the results you’ve seen from the Suns so far in this series.

The model gives the Over a three-star rating, with the line tonight set at 219. The first two games of this series have seen 235 and 237 points scored, so you can definitely make a case that the over is the right play for Game 3.