Smith Jr. Large Favorite to be First Overall Pick to Magic

The Orlando Magic are on the clock for Thursday’s NBA draft, and all signs point to them using the first overall pick to select Jabari Smith Jr. out of Auburn.

The last three first overall picks were Zion Williamson in 2019 to the New Orleans Pelicans, Anthony Edwards in 2020 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Cade Cunningham in 2021 to the Detroit Pistons. All three players have had success in the league, which should bode well for whoever the Magic select. 

There’s been some uncertainty leading up to the selection, with no clear-cut number one talent present in this year’s class. That doesn’t mean there won’t be stars. It means there isn’t clarity compared to years when there’s a generational prospect. 

Smith Jr. brings the type of presence that can stretch the floor and provides a tremendous three-point stroke, which should lead him to some high-scoring nights at the NBA level. His shot separates him, along with his athleticism and rebounding, which currently has him as a -550 favorite to be the first player off the board. He might feel like a safe option here, but with the Magic looking to build around Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs in their backcourt, one of these three forwards will fit in nicely with their current core. 

If Smith Jr. isn’t ultimately taken by the Magic, Paolo Banchero out of Duke has the second-highest odds to be the selection at +200, taking over that spot from Chet Holmgren, who now sits at +1000. It’s interesting how quickly things can change with Banchero’s line movement seeing his odds were at +900 earlier this week. 

Even with Smith Jr. the likely favorite, the tickets have been relatively spread out, with the former Auburn Tiger owning the highest percentage at 34.3%, followed by Banchero with 22.8%, and Holmgren with 20.5%. 

The money has seen 70.7% go towards Smith Jr., Holmgren owns 15.7% of the handle and Banchero 11.9%. 

With the race being narrowed down to three candidates and seeing a combined 98.3% of the money headed in their direction, Smith Jr., Banchero, and Holmgren are all the book’s biggest liabilities to be selected first overall. 

Below you can find the three top prospects with the highest odds of being selected first by the Magic from the BetMGM Sportsbook

Player Opening Odds Current Odds
Jabari Smith Jr. -105 -550
Paolo Banchero 350 200
Chet Holmgren 145 1000