The Boston Celtics will look to put the Golden State Warriors on the brink of elimination as they host Game 4 of the NBA Finals at TD Garden. Boston defeated the Warriors 116-100 in their first home game of the series on Wednesday to lead this matchup 2-1.
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors +185
Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics -230
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Analysis
There’s a lot to like about how the Celtics are playing right now, picking up their sixth win in ten home playoff games on Wednesday. The Celtics shot efficiently in the victory, shooting 48.3% from the floor and 37.1% from three. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart combined for 77 points, with Al Horford and Robert Williams also landing in double figures. It’s interesting to note that every game in this series has been decided by ten or more points, which is noteworthy for the spread that the Celtics favored by four points at home. The Warriors have continued to dominate third quarters, an area the Celtics will need to clean up if they have hopes of picking up a third victory in this matchup tonight.
The SportsGrid betting model again likes the Boston Celtics at home, giving them a 77.68% win probability and a five-star rating on the moneyline. The Celtics currently sit at -168 on the moneyline, compared to the Warriors’ odds of +142. Stephen Curry not being 100 percent will factor in how you look at this matchup with the Warriors’ value, especially considering their postseason experience. That said, the model is all over the Celtics in this contest, giving them a five-star rating on the spread.
In terms of the total for tonight, the first three matchups of this series have seen 228, 195, and 216 points scored. The line for Game 4 is set at 214.5, which makes sense when considering the three prior results. The model leans strongly toward the over 214.5, giving it a five-star rating. With two of the three games in this series already eclipsing that number, it’s hard to disagree with the model in Game 4 tonight.
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Game Predictions and Picks
SG Betting Model Win Probability: Golden State Warriors (22.32%) vs. Boston Celtics (77.68%)
SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars
SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER – 5 Stars
Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!
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