Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 Betting Model Preview

The NBA Finals shift back to Boston with the Golden State Warriors holding a 3-2 series lead on the Celtics with a chance to close things out tonight. 

Golden State picked up a Game 5 victory at home on Monday by a score of 104-94. Jayson Tatum posted a game-high 27 points in the losing effort, while Andrew Wiggins dropped 26 for the Warriors. Game 5 marked the first time in 233 games where Stephen Curry didn’t record a made three-pointer. 

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Game Information

Golden State Warriors (15-6) | Boston Celtics (14-9)

Date: June 16, 2022 | Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Location: Boston, Massachusetts | Venue: TD Garden

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline Open: Warriors +126 / Celtics -148 | Current: Warriors +140 / Celtics -166

Spread Open: Warriors +3 / Celtics -3 | Current: Warriors +3.5 / Celtics -3.5

Game Total Open: 210 | Current: 210

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Golden State Warriors -400

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +310

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Analysis 

The Boston Celtics are on the brink of elimination in the NBA Finals after the Warriors picked up a decisive Game 5 victory. Every game in this series has been decided by double-digits, which means there could be some value on the spread, which is still moderately low with the Celtics favored by 3.5.

After taking a 2-1 series lead at home, the Celtics have now lost two straight games and put themselves in a difficult position against a veteran Golden State team. The Warriors were more efficient from the floor in Game 5, shooting 46.6%, compared to the Celtics’ 41.3%. The Warriors also shot a poor 22.2% from beyond-the-arc, which could spell trouble for the Celtics if the Warriors see an uptick in made threes in Game 6.

The SportsGrid betting model has sided with the Celtics again tonight, giving them a win probability of 82.48%, followed by a five-star rating on the moneyline. The Celtics are much better than they’ve shown over the past two games, where they’ve lost by a combined margin of 20 points. Jayson Tatum had his best game of the series in Game 5 and shot 50% from the floor. He’ll need to continue that at home and get more from his supporting cast, specifically Jaylen Brown. There’s likely a lot of value with the Celtics to win and cover the spread at -3.5, which the model suggests, giving it a five-star rating tonight. 

Looking at the total, the model has another strong lean, giving the over a five-star rating. So far in this series, there’s been point totals of 228, 195, 216, 204, and 198, with tonight’s line set at 210. The past two games in this series have been more tightly contested, and neither team has shot exceptionally well. However, it’s still hard to look away from more points being scored with the offensive capabilities of these clubs and with the Celtics’ season on the line. It’s also hard to envision another game where Curry doesn’t make things happen from three-point land. Like the model suggests, side with the over 210 again in Game 6. 

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Golden State Warriors (17.52%) vs. Boston Celtics (82.48%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS – 5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER – 5 Stars