Betting Insights: LSU to Win the National Championship

Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge has been a resounding success. The LSU Tigers are 7-2 overall and 5-1 in SEC play and notched a last-second victory over their rival Alabama Crimson Tide in a monumental win for the program.

This win sent tidal waves throughout the country, as Nick Saban’s vice grip on the SEC, and thereby the sport as a whole, has loosened for at least one year. The shock was felt in the betting market, where some significant line movements happened regarding National Championship futures.

What do bettors have to say about LSU’s big win? Let’s look at the college football futures betting market at the BetMGM Sportsbook to gain some insight.

National Championship Movement (Last Week, Current)

  • Georgia +200 to -105
  • Tennessee +1100 to +1400
  • Alabama +300 to +4000
  • LSU +50000 to +5000

Alabama dropped from +300 to +4000 to win the National Championship after Week 10’s defeat in Baton Rouge. LSU has two losses and therefore is still viewed as an outsider in the College Football Playoff discussion, but moving from a +50000 afterthought to +5000 indicates that there is still a path for the Tigers.

Checking in at No. 7 in the latest CFP Rankings, the Tigers are atop the SEC West standings and hold the tiebreaker over the second-place Ole Miss Rebels and third-place Crimson Tide. Would the committee keep them out of the playoffs if LSU makes it to the SEC Championship game (likely) and topples the Georgia Bulldogs (difficult!)?

The Tigers will be favored in their last three games of the regular season (Arkansas, UAB, Texas A&M) but would likely be a two-score underdog in a potential matchup with Georgia.

The Georgia Bulldogs have become the betting favorite to recapture the National Championship after Week 10’s dominant win over Tennessee. LSU opened at +8000 in the offseason but moved down to +50000 after two defeats, which would eliminate most teams from the title picture.

The SEC is a different beast, however, and the committee has shown a clear preference for the conference in the past. If the Tigers can win out, it’s hard to see an 11-2 SEC Champion team with wins over Alabama and Georgia being left out of the postseason.

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