What Are Michigan State’s Big Ten Odds? Season Win Total Preview & Pick

In Mel Tucker’s second season, the Michigan State Spartans had one of the top breakthrough campaigns of 2021, as they leaped to 11 wins, the program’s most victories since 2015, the peak of the Mark Dantonio days. Much love has come Tucker’s way (earned) and a big-fat contract $95 million contract extension (TBD). It appears he has the program headed in the right direction, but they have as many question marks as answers going into the 2022 season.

Michigan State Spartans Breakdown

2021 Record: 11-2 (7-2); Big Ten Finish: 3rd in B1G East

AP Poll: No. 15 | Coaches Poll: No. 14 | PFF: No. 17 | SP+: No. 15

Head Coach: Mel Tucker 13-7 (9-7) | 3rd Season | Overall: 18-14

Offensive Coordinator: Jay Johnson (3rd Season)

Defensive Coordinator: Scottie Hazelton (3rd Season)

Futures Odds

National Championship Odds: +20000

B1G Championship Odds: +2500

Win 10 Games: +800

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -110 | UNDER 7.5 -110

2022 Sneak Peak

Origin of Optimism: Mel Tucker’s ability to add and infuse immediate impact talent.

Cause for Concern: Replacing over 130 starts from their offensive line two-deep. 

Breakout Player: WR Keon Coleman, Sophomore

It’s a disappointing 2022 if the expected regression results in a losing season.

It’s a successful 2022 if the Spartans finish third or better in the B1G East.

X-Factor: For the second-straight year, it’s the impact the incoming transfers make.

Schedule

After an easy MAC-double dip, Week 3 beings a daunting stretch for Sparty: at Washington, vs. Minnesota, at Maryland, vs. Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin, and at Michigan. After facing three teams ranked in the preseason top 20 (two in the top ten), Illinois (road) won’t be easy to get up for the following week. They play UM and Penn State on the road this year, and the West slate is more challenging.

OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

I will never be bullish on a team going into the season with offensive line issues. Ever. It’s too important and often overlooked by the public compared to skill players. That is the case in East Lansing. This puts into question Payton Thorne’s pass protection. Moreover, the quarterback did his best work in play-action situations. With potential o-line issues and no Kenneth Walker, how will he fare if the run game takes a step back?

The questions don’t end there, as my cause for concern just as easily could have been a pass defense that ranked 130th in college football last season. In case you aren’t sure, that’s out of 130 teams. They should be better because they cannot be worse, but having to replace their top three defensive ends from last season, how much improvement can we realistically expect?

Unless the Spartans upset Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State (the latter two on the road), the question becomes will they win four of these five games: at Washington, vs. Minnesota, at Maryland, vs. Wisconsin, and at Illinois? That’s a tall task, so I’m going with the UNDER on MSU. Seven wins is not a bad season for the Spartans, despite the drop-off from last year’s record.

The Pick

UNDER 7.5 (-110)