49ers-Cardinals DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Christian McCaffrey has the highest optimal projection on this DFS showdown slate on Monday Night Football between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City. CMC can do anything on the football field, depending on how much he gets the football. He was out carried by Elijah Mitchell 18 to 14, but CMC compensated with six additional targets through the air. At his price and ownership, paying up for CMC isn’t the most desirable thing, given Mitchell’s presence but as we’ve seen before, fade CMC at your own peril.

DeAndre Hopkins is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest but is expected to play despite a nagging hamstring injury. Kliff Kingsbury downplayed the severity, so we hope he plays a full workload after being dominant in his return from suspension. He’s recorded double-digit receptions in three of the last four weeks while plenty of red-zone work in for play with Zach Ertz out for the season. Assuming you’re confident in his health, there is more than enough in the tank to make him multiplier worthy.

If you aren’t confident in his health, Rondale Moore becomes a more desirable value play at the multiplier spot. He has 24 receptions off of 31 targets over the past three weeks and has seen more red zone targets than D-Hop over the past four weeks. Given his affordability, he’ll be highly owned at the flex, but if you’re not confident in D-Hop’s health, then he is an attractive play at the multiplier.

Jimmy Garoppolo might be the safest play on the 49ers’ side of the slate, as they are so many mouths to feed on offense, with Mitchell’s presence throwing a giant wrench in the works. Jimmy G is coming in under-owned across the board with the second-highest optimal probability, only slightly trailing CMC, so we like Jimmy G as a relatively comfortable multiplier option.


DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore accounted for a combined 78 percent target share last week from Colt McCoy, which would all but eliminate McCoy’s path to multiplier contention if that were extended tonight. He’s a little more expensive than we would hope, but he’s a safe play who should be in for additional garbage time value as the Cardinals are double-digit underdogs.

We’re favoring Brandon Aiyuk over Deebo Samuel, although both are desirable players. Aiyuk has recorded at least 80 yards in four straight games while having at least six receptions in each outing. Deebo has gone over six receptions in only one of his last four games and hasn’t seen enough rushing work to surpass Aiyuk for us.

James Conner is facing arguably the league’s best run defense after having his best game of the season, with 21 carries. That shouldn’t happen for a second consecutive week against this defense, so given how expensive he’ll be, we’re looking to fade him.

Kyle Shanahan believes that George Kittle is better served as a sixth offensive lineman rather than having the ball in his hands. Tonight presents the optimal opportunity because Arizona allows the most yards per game and seven touchdowns through ten games to opposing tight ends. However, his unfriendly price will require confidence in Shanahan to back Kittle.

AJ Green, Robbie Anderson, and Greg Dortch have combined for only 19 targets over the past four weeks, so it is hard to find confidence in them as value plays. Green has a lot to gain if Hopkins’s hamstring hampers him, but Anderson’s deep-ball threat is enticing if you target this group for a cheap play. Keaontay Ingram is our favorite play, as we expect him to dominate rotational touches at a lower price than the three receivers mentioned above. 

Elijah Mitchell shocked us all as he out-carried McCaffrey last week, which gives us a fair amount of confidence in his role tonight. As a double-digit favorite, Mitchell feels to be the guy depended on to eat at the clock, so we like his favorability in a run-first offense.

Besides a not-so-cheap Jauan Jennings, who is a safe play with a low ceiling, San Francisco lacks the cheap talent to infuse financial flexibility into our lineups. We’re going to tout a minimally priced Kyle Juszczyk, still ramping up from an injury, who saw four targets in each of his last two fully healthy games.