Chicago Bears (+126) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-148) Total: 49.5 (O -112, U -108)
Both teams have featured some up-and-down play, but they’ve performed well above expectations offensively. Neither was expected to be in the top half of the NFL in points scored, and both deserve credit for their successes.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields has come into his own, using his legs amid a more run-heavy offense. Over the past two weeks, Fields has combined to rush for 325 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, you read that correctly. It’s also an NFL record over two games for a quarterback. Fields has majorly cut down on the turnovers and been much more active in the pocket.
The Falcons have been hit and miss offensively, but when they’ve hit, they’ve done so at a high level. They want to operate with a solid offensive line and focus on running the football. It’s been a little frustrating watching their young talented playmakers not be utilized more, but they’ve still been able to generate points.
In contrast to offensive success, the defense has been lackluster. Neither teams’ defense instills confidence heading into this matchup. The Bears are trending in a better direction, with Fields demonstrating why he’s Chicago’s QB1 of the future. With that in mind, there’s likely some value with the visitors’ moneyline, priced at +126.
Best Bet: Bears moneyline (+126)
It’s surprising to see this game with the highest projected total of the week. Still, neither defense will put up much of a fight, especially with the Bears dealing two of their best defenders ahead of the trade deadline. Both teams should have a ton of success on the ground and have high yards per carry, leading to a back-and-forth affair where neither side can pull away. The Falcons have some nice pieces on offense, but none operate at the rate of Fields and the Bears. Chicago’s quarterback is the difference in this matchup and is a significant reason the over 49.5 will hit.
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