Betting Insights: NFL Offensive ROY

While there may not have been a flurry of impact rookies on the offensive side of the ball this year in the NFL, we’ve seen flourishes of football’s future.

Brock Purdy has stepped in nicely to run the San Francisco 49ers’ offense, Brian Robinson Jr. came back from a gunshot wound to make an impact in the Washington Commanders backfield, and Christian Watson has been a touchdown-catching machine for the Green Bay Packers. All that said, it’s two players that are taking up the most ink at Bet MGM.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Insights @ BetMGM

  • Highest Ticket%: Kenny Pickett 10.4%
  • Highest Handle%: Garrett Wilson 23.2%
  • Biggest Liability: Kenny Pickett
  • Odds Leader: Garrett Wilson -200

Kenny Pickett took hold of the starting quarterback job in Pittsburgh back in Week 4 after being selected 20th overall by the Steelers in the 2022 NFL Draft. The former Pitt Panther didn’t get his first touchdown pass until Week 6 after starting his career with four interceptions.

Pickett continued to have trouble with his TD-to-INT ratio, as he’s thrown nine picks to just five touchdown tosses. The 24-year-old New Jersey native remains Bet MGM’s biggest liability after opening the season as a favorite to win the award at +500.

Those odds are a distant memory as the Steelers’ signal-caller of the future’s odds have sunk to +10000, essentially ruling him out of contention for the award. The public is scattered on this futures bet as Pickett accounts for just over ten percent of wagers placed, despite being such a liability.

One of the players taking some of those scattered tickets is an up-and-coming New York Jets wide receiver. Garrett Wilson is having a fantastic campaign in his first year catching passes in the NFL. Wilson leads the Jets with 71 receptions, 996 receiving yards, and four touchdown catches.

The tenth overall pick of the 2022 draft also leads all rookies in targets, catches, and yards. In addition, he leads all of BetMGM bets in handle. The fact that he has brought in over 23 percent of the money with just 8.2 percent of tickets is very telling. There is some big money behind Wilson, who is now a healthy favorite at -200, to take home the hardware.

Brock Purdy is an interesting outlier, as the Niners pivot has just three NFL starts. Purdy took over in San Fran in Week 13 when Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending injury. Mr. Irrelevant, aka the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, has led the 49ers to wins in all three of his starts, as well as in the game against the Miami Dolphins, where he took over for Jimmy G.

The Iowa State alum has been spectacular during his small sample size, with eight touchdown passes and a 103.2 QB rating. Purdy has jumped from off the board to the third-shortest odds for the award at +700. His first NFL start was less than a month ago, yet he’s shot up to take 3.5 percent of tickets and 3.1 percent of the handle.