Bills-Dolphins: Spread, Moneyline, Total Game Picks

Two undefeated teams, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, are set to collide for an important Week 3 matchup between AFC East foes.

Buffalo Bills (-255) vs. Miami Dolphins (+210) Total: 52.5 (O -110, U -110)

It’s been somewhat of an early breakout offensively for the Miami Dolphins through two games. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we already knew what to expect from Buffalo on offense. This will be a big test for Tua Tagovailoa and whether or not this Bills’ pass rush can force him into making mistakes. Let’s be clear, Josh Allen is going to eat, but the biggest question in this matchup centers around the Bills’ defensive line vs. the Dolphins’ offensive line. Both have held up nicely through two games, and that should make for a compelling matchup in the trenches come Sunday. Last season, the Bills blew out the Dolphins 35-0 and defeated them 26-11, meaning you should likely have confidence in their side, even with plenty of improvements being made in the offseason from a Miami perspective. 

The Bills did a good job of letting Cooper Kupp feast in Week 1 while not letting anyone else make a difference on offense, perfecting their game plan to a tee. That will be more complex, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle being massive threats. There’s no value in looking towards the Bills’ moneyline at -255, meaning you’re left to consider the spread, which currently favors the Bills at -6.5 or the Dolphins on the moneyline at +210. The Bills have been toying with teams early on, specifically quality ones like the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the number one seed from the AFC last year in the Tennessee Titans. That doesn’t spell good news for Miami, who should be in tough in this matchup. There’s a case to be made that they might be able to keep up offensively with the Bills, but Buffalo is too overpowering and will do enough late to cover the 6.5 points. 

Best Bet: Bills -6.5 (-104)

It shouldn’t be a surprise that points are expected in this matchup, highlighted 52.5 total. With the weapons each side boasts on offense, it could be a long afternoon for both defenses. The Bills have combined to score 72 points through two weeks while allowing just 17, meaning it’s going to be something to watch for if the Dolphins can generate offense against this elite Bills defense. In saying that, the Dolphins have been efficient offensively through two weeks and should be the Bills’ most formidable challenge yet on defense. It’s been difficult for teams to find an answer for the dual threat that is Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so it will be interesting to see how Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier schemes this game. The Dolphins should struggle to stop Josh Allen and company, meaning there’s some value with the over 52.5 at -110. 

Best Bet: Over 52.5 (-110)

Game Pick: Bills 35, Dolphins 28