Welcome to the longest odds to win their respective division out of any team in the NFL! The Houston Texans currently sit at a massive 25-to-1 to take home the AFC South crown in 2022 on BetMGM. To prepare for the upcoming season, we discuss Houston’s most significant offseason moves and if there is value in their odds of winning the division.
Houston Texans (2021 Record: 4-13)
Biggest Addition: John Metchie
John Metchie will hopefully provide something the Texans desperately needed in 2021: A pass-catcher opposite Brandin Cooks. To put Houston’s need for a second option into perspective, Cooks had 90 receptions for 1,037 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 134 targets. The next three receivers on the roster – Nico Collins, Chris Conley, and Danny Amendola – combined for 79 receptions for 1,017 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 135 targets. The 2022 second-round pick out of Alabama will be called upon to step up quickly.
Biggest Loss: Justin Reid
Free safety Justin Reid is gone after four seasons with the Texans, and they’ll have some work to do to replace the consistency that Reid brought every week. The 25-year-old appeared in 57 games during his time with Houston and accrued 315 tackles, seven interceptions, and a touchdown.
X-Factor: Davis Mills
Some would argue that Davis Mills was the most impressive rookie quarterback in 2021. He undoubtedly showed that he could be the real deal towards the end of 2021 with stellar showings across his final five starts. From Weeks 14 to 18, Mills completed 68.42 percent of his passes for 1,258 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions. The Texans will be much better this season if Mills can find this form more often.
AFC South Futures Market
Line Movement: +2500 -> +2500
Amount of tickets: 5.4%
This number is an absolute bargain for the Houston Texans. Mills showed legitimate progression towards the end of the season, and teammate Brandin Cooks has given him serious praise in OTAs: “I just think his leadership and his confidence is really taking control in that huddle. He’s not that rookie anymore. He comes in, he knows that’s his huddle, and that’s what you look for in your quarterback.”
After a disastrous year rushing the football, the Texans drafted Damion Pierce and signed Marlon Mack – a sixth-year back who tallied 2,184 yards and 18 total touchdowns with the Colts in 2018 and 2019 – which will only help the offense as well as the progression of their young signal-caller. If Mills has a breakout season, you may have a golden ticket on your hands with such a ridiculous price.
Buy or Sell?
Buy the Texans at this long price to win the AFC South in 2022.
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