When you first saw the news that Jordan Matthews was moved to the Buffalo Bills for Ronald Darby, what was your first reaction? My attention turned to Zach Ertz. No, not Nelson Agholor, whom the Fantasy industry and Twitter have turned to as the player most likely to benefit from Matthews’ absence.
OK, but why? With Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey on the outside, Agholor is set to take over the slot role in the Eagles’ offense. The only issue with that is that, well, Agholor hasn’t shown us anything to make us believe that he is any good, and Ertz is a target monster at tight end.
Last year, Matthews missed two games. In those two games, it was Ertz who was the benefactor, as he saw 15 targets against Cincinnati and 16 targets against Dallas. Those were the two most highly targeted games for Ertz on the season. He hauled in nine and 13 passes, respectively, for a combined 218 yards. Oh, he also scored three combined touchdowns – he had only four all season – in those games.
Could Agholor break out still? Sure. It’s possible. But in those two games, Agholor saw four combined targets. He’s fine as a late-round flier in a deep draft, but don’t buy into the hype with Agholor.
With Ertz, the hype is worth buying. In PPR leagues, he’s a Top 6 tight end. In standard leagues, he’s a Top 8 option. He’s in for a monster year, and with his No. 99 overall ADP as the 10th tight end off the board, there’s nothing but value to be had there.
Or do you prefer Giancarlo Allen? You see where we’re going with this, right? We were writing off Giancarlo Stanton in Fantasy Baseball this year because of his past injuries and labeling him as injury-prone. Well, those who took a shot on him are reaping the benefits, as he’s on pace for 60 homers. Yes, this is a Fantasy Football column, I know. I’m getting there. Stanton has a very long list of injuries, but they were all of the fluky nature.
This is where Keenan Allen comes into play.
Allen has yet to play 16 games in a season, which isn’t super rare. But, over the past three years, he’s played 14, eight and one game, respectively. Major injury risk, right?
Well, not really.
They haven’t been recurring injuries. We have a collarbone, kidney injury and a torn ACL. Like Stanton, the injuries have been fluky for Allen. And, like Stanton, the owners who take a shot on him are going to be rewarded in a big way. You’re looking at a guy that in eight games in 2015, had the 24th best DYAR, 22nd best DVOA and the 41st most targets in football. Don’t pair him with risky early-round players, but with his 42nd overall ADP, he’s worth the upside, just like Stanton was at No. 38 overall.
You know, as great as it is seeing a player have a breakout game, it’s really preferred it happens in the regular season as opposed to in the preseason. That big discount you were getting on Kenny Golladay, you can kiss it goodbye. And it’s a shame, really, because Golladay was a true sleeper, and his ADP on FantasyPros is still 234. However, in a recent NFFC draft, Golladay went in the 10th round.
Yeah, you’re not recommended to take Golladay there. He could have a very solid season, but with Golden Tate having his role, Theo Riddick in his pass-catching role, Eric Ebron expected to take the targets and red zone production of Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones still having upside, what is the best-case scenario for Golladay? Fifty, 550 and four? Let’s pump the brakes a bit on Golladay, shall we?
Waiting Too Long
As an industry, we are waiting way too long on quarterbacks. Look, I’m with the movement, and I always have been. Never take a quarterback in Round 1 or Round 2. Aaron Rodgers is the only one that should go in Round 3, but in a recent 12-team PPR mock draft, I took Rodgers in the fourth round. Tom Brady followed Rodgers, and Drew Brees went with the last pick of the fifth round. All three are amazing values. I’m all about waiting until Round 9 or later for a quarterback, but there has to come a point where you take the value given. Eddie Lacy over Brees? No, never.
When the trade deadline approaches, owners will be looking for elite quarterbacks. If they are available to you at the right time in the draft, why not just take them there and then?
The way that quarterbacks are valued now is why superflex leagues are going to be more and more common as the years go on.
On Tuesday, it was announced that Zay Jones will be the Bills’ X receiver. While yes, he ran the majority of his snaps out of the slot position in college, Jones was a receiver that played on the outside as well. What’s this mean for his draft stock? Well, it’s going to elevate him, but should it?
Over the past three years, the Bills have ranked 15th, 21st and 27th in the league in touchdown passes and 13th, 31st and 32nd in pass attempts. It’s a run-first offense, and will remain that way. With low passing volume, Jones is going to disappoint in season-long leagues. His biggest appeal is dynasty leagues and in the right matchup in DFS. Don’t fall for the hype train, as his 163 ADP is only going to go up.