Kansas City Chiefs (-450) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+350) Total: 52.5 (O -110, U -110)
There’s a lot to like about how the Chiefs have played down the stretch, posting four straight victories. The Raiders haven’t experienced positive results, losing two straight and going 2-3 over their last five. Earlier this season, the Chiefs escaped with a 30-29 victory over the Raiders. It’s often hard to gauge these divisional matchups, even when one team should have a clear edge.
The Chiefs being nearly double-digit favorites might have merit, but at the same time, they haven’t done a convincing job of playing the role of favorite. During their last four victories, three were by six points or fewer, but the Chiefs were sizable favorites in all of them.
Jarrett Stidham is expected to get his second straight start for the Raiders on Saturday. He debuted throwing for 365 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions. It’s pretty clear what Patrick Mahomes will be able to accomplish, but Stidham looked impressive in his first start and should do enough to keep this game close.
The Raiders are probably a better team than their 6-10 record suggests, so don’t be surprised if they cover the 9.5 points on the spread.
Best Bet: Raiders +9.5 (-118)
During the first meeting between the Raiders and Chiefs, the teams combined for 59 points, as the line is set at 52.5 for the second go-around. Both teams sit in the top half of the NFL in points scored, so there’s a likelihood that we see offense in this matchup again. However, just two of the last five Chiefs games have eclipsed the total of 52.5, while the same holds true for the Raiders. That might make you pause when looking at the line, but looking at the history of this rivalry, each of the last five games has gone over 52.5. As a result, there’s some value in targeting the over 52.5, currently priced at -110.
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