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Dak Prescott has the highest optimal probability on this DFS showdown slate between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football to wrap up Wild Card weekend. Dak hasn’t been great lately, primarily due to interceptions, but he has provided high yardage, and multiple touchdown passes in most games. Tampa has a respectable pass defense, but we’re not overly concerned, as this should be a back-and-forth affair. Still, we’d rather side with CeeDee Lamb as our multiplier target over his quarterback, given CeeDee’ssdependency, with a potential 30% target share.
Choosing between Tom Brady, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin as a multiplier target is where you’ll like to go on Tampa’ssside of the ball. Brady is the safest option, as he ranks third in the league in passing yards and could put out a well-diversified offense. Evans would be the riskiest as his floor-to-ceiling has a wide gap, and his six touchdowns this season only came in three separate games. Not ideal for a showdown contest. We’re going to ride with Godwin tonight, as he’s a PPR machine, averaging nearly eight receptions per game over his last four, and could be a touchdown away from turning optimal.
We’re looking to Ezekiel Elliott as our affordable option on this slate, as before the last game, he found the end zone in nine consecutive games. During that stretch, he’s averaged over 17 touches per game, so if this game isn’t as high scoring and passive as many expect, the affordability of Zeke could pave the way for him to be optimal at the multiplier spot.
After the above multiplier targets, who also present as strong flex plays, Tony Pollard headlines the group. He appears to have a clean bill of health and is ready to regain his full dual-threat workload. He’ll likely surpass 15 touches and has combined for 12 touchdowns on the year, setting up nicely for a showdown contest. We don’t expect him to be overly owned, so we’ll find ways to get him into our lineups.
After Godwin and Evans, Russell Gage has slid into Tampa’s WR3 role nicely, combining for 27 targets over the last four games. Fitting Evans and Godwin into your lineups is unfeasible financially, so we’ll look to plug Gage in those Brady stacks. Julio Jones’ssstock is down, and he’s only recorded two receptions over the last two games, so we’ll stay away.
Michael Gallup is priced similarly to Gage, but we’d rather play Gage. Gallup will see higher ownership, given his stature as Dallas”WR2, but he hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards in six straight weeks. T.Y. Hilton and Noah Brown are priced dirt cheap, so we’d rather go with one of those two. Brown is the safer pick with a more secure role, but Hilton has two 50-yard games in his three games as a Cowboy and will see lower ownership. Either could be a solid way to insert some financial flexibility into your lineups.
Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White anchor the league’s worst rushing attack. Fournette has a slight edge over White and will be more expensive, but it’s hard to have confidence in either. Fournette had a dominant game against the Cowboys this season, but that was over four months ago. Given what we know now, we’d be foolish to take Fournette at a price similar to Pollard and Zeke. White is noticeably cheaper and has shown the potential for a high target share that could warrant a flier.
Dalton Schultz has a strong matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the fifth most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Schultz will be over-owned but has averaged over seven targets per game over his last five, so we view the value as still being there.
Tampa’sstight ends are priced minimally, but besides Cade Otton, who we aren’t crazy about, we’ll look to stay away. Dallas’ defense allows the sixth-fewest yards per game to opposing tight ends, and Otton has gone under 20 yards in four straight weeks. Still, as Brady’ssTE1, his price could be low enough to be worth a shot.
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