DFS Picks for NFL Divisional Playoffs
Jake Ciely (@allinkid) of RotoExperts.com deals out his NFL Divisional Round DFS picks and advice.
No fluff and rambling intro this week. We're just diving right in to the Divisional Round NFL DFS picks.
Aaron Rodgers ($8200/$8800) – It's hard to argue against a quarterback as hot as Rodgers is, but here we go… I'm going to try. The price is the main negative with Rodgers, as you can save and take Tom Brady or Matt Ryan with the same ceiling. Yes, Rodgers has 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last eight games with 12 and zero in the last three and 336.3 YPG… wait, where was I going with this? Yea, it's kind of tough to ignore those numbers, but hold on, there is still an argument against Rodgers. The Cowboys like to play ball control and run out the clock (literally), and they allowed the 13th fewest plays per game. In addition, Rodgers had 294 yards, one touchdown and one interception at home against the Cowboys earlier this year, and the Cowboys had nine games with one or none passing touchdowns allowed. Rodgers is amazing and a great play, just also easy to pivot off with the other options.
Tom Brady ($7600/$8600) – The Texans defense are the best remaining defense in the playoffs, but there is no stopping Brady. Obviously, Vegas agrees with the -16 spread for the Patriots. Brady only had three games without multiple touchdowns, and seven of his 12 games had three or four passing scores. In fact, in the six games started by Brady when the Patriots won by at least two touchdowns, Brady had 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions (26.2 FPPG on DraftKings).
Matt Ryan ($7000/$8300) – The simplest evaluation of Ryan is seen in his 335 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle earlier this year. The Falcons averaged 35.0 PPG at home this year, which is four points more than any other team (Saints 31.0 in second). That includes the second most passing yards and fourth most passing touchdowns per game at home. The Seahawks defense is not only weaker this year, but it only has one interception to Derek Anderson on his one pass attempt since Week 12. Ryan can easily duplicate his Week 6 performance against the Seahawks, and if so, he would be a value at this price.
Russell Wilson ($6900/$8200) – Wilson had a quiet game against the Falcons in the first matchup, but the Falcons are very weak against slot receivers. That's where Doug Baldwin does most of his damage, and the Falcons don't have Desmond Trufant to help cover Baldwin as much as he did in Seattle. Trufant covered Baldwin over 60 percent of the time in that game, which obviously boosts Baldwin's value, but it helps Wilson's outlook, as does Wilson's health. Wilson wasn't 100 percent in Week 6, and as we've seen in the last four games, he's still quite dangerous. Nevertheless, the price is too close to Ryan to warrant using Wilson outside of tournaments, and even then, only at a low exposure.
Dak Prescott ($6000/$7700) – Prescott is my favorite cash game play, although more so on DraftKings. Prescott had just three games (outside the Week 17 rest) where he didn't reach 18 Fantasy points, and two of those games were against the Giants (Vikings the other). The only drawback to Prescott is his ceiling, and that's why he's not a great tournament play. Prescott only hit 24-plus points twice, and neither of those reached 29 or more. Nevertheless, as much as the Cowboys like to drain the clock, Rodgers and the Packers will force the Cowboys to be more aggressive than usual.
Others – Ben Roethlisberger could keep rolling and reverse those road splits, but Roethlisberger turns into Jared Goff on the road, and that's too terrible to ignore – or roster…
Alex Smith isn't the worst tournament play given the level of savings you get, but if Roethlisberger turns into Road Game Ben, the Chiefs offense won't need to score much to win… Yes, Brock Osweiler surprised in the Wild Card round, but it's the Patriots, not the Raiders. Give me your money instead of playing a lineup with Osweiler. It will go to better use.
Le'Veon Bell ($10500/$9900) – What really needs to be said at this point? Bell averaged over 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards per game and had over 22 points against the Chiefs back in Week 4. As for the Chiefs defense, it's definitely a strong unit, but against the run, they have actually allowed double-digit Fantasy points in all but two games (Oakland Week 6, Panthers Week 10). If you can afford Bell, you use him, but with the next running back available this week, the extra cost might not be worth it.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8500/$8500) – Remember when people worried about Zeke facing the Packers back in Week 6? All Elliott did was torch them for 157 rushing yards on 28 carries. Heck, Elliott near 20 points without even scoring. The Packers let Jordan Howard and Zach Zenner top 20 points in their last three games with Jerick McKinnon even reaching 13-plus points. Elliott is a lock for cash and tournaments.
Thomas Rawls ($6900/$7500) – Rawls has more value if C.J. Prosise ($6900/$7500) can't make it on the field. Even if Prosise is out though, I'd be wary despite the favorable matchup. Rawls admitted he felt all of the hits he took last week, and the last time Rawls was rolling and started talk about the wear and tear, he had 21 carries for 34 yards against the Rams. Those final three games of 56 yards on 37 carries have to be concerning, and while I might own a share if Prosise is out, I want no part of Rawls if Prosise plays. Don't forget that the Seahawks offensive line is still an issue, and Prosise is the superior option in the passing game.
Devonta Freeman ($5900/$7600) – Freeman is intriguing on DraftKings, but I'm not as fond of his price on FanDuel. In fact, Freeman has one of the higher percent of total salary differences at running back. Need clarification on that? Okay… it was a bit confusing, wording wise. Freeman accounts for 11.8 percent of your budget on DraftKings but 12.7 percent on FanDuel. Most running backs account for a higher percentage on DraftKings, as Bell is 4.5 percentage points higher on DraftKings (21.0/16.5). Teammate Tevin Coleman actually intrigues me more with his 9.0 and 9.8 percent of budget prices ($4500/$5900). In fact, Coleman averaged 16.9 points in the Falcons nine wins that Coleman played.
LeGarrette Blount ($5800/$7300) – I referenced the Vegas spread for this game, and it's important for another reason. In the Patriots wins of seven points or more (12 games), Blount averaged 75.1 yards per game, 16.1 (DK) points and had 14 touchdowns. Blount, as with Prescott, isn't the best tournament play due to his relatively low ceiling compared to others, but he's a lock in cash and for double-digit points.
To see the rest of the running back advice along with wide receivers and tight ends, click on over to RotoExperts.com!
Image via Getty
Be the first to know
Want FREE Fantasy and Betting Advice and Savings Delivered to your Inbox? Sign up for our Newsletter.