Eagles-Texans DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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MULTIPLIER TARGETS:

Jalen Hurts heads to his hometown of Houston, Texas, to lead his undefeated Philadelphia Eagles against the 1-5-1 Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. With tons of family expected to be in the stands, that should count as an automatic boost to Hurts’s stock. He’s capable of leading the way in rushing while his arm has looked more dangerous and composed by the week as he launched four touchdowns through the air in Week 8. He’ll be deservedly expensive at the multiplier, but given the cheap options on the slate from the Texans side and his high ceiling, he’s more than worth coughing up the money for. 

AJ Brown has been one of football’s best receivers and has seen highly consistent volume in the process. Seeing a minimum of seven targets per game while averaging nine, he is Philly’s top red-zone threat while offering the vertical upside to pay off greatly in showdown slates. He’s only $900 less than Hurts at the multiplier, which is undesirable given Hurts’s ceiling but offers substantial leverage if you anticipate a second consecutive multi-touchdown game.

Miles Sanders is tied for the seventh most rushing attempts in football, but that ranking is lower than it should have been given his early rest last week due to the blowout. Should we be worried about another blowout resulting in a repeat occurrence in the fourth quarter on a short week? Absolutely. If the game is ugly enough, which the point spread suggests. Sanders is more than a viable FLEX option but is slightly concerning to pay up for at the multiplier given last week’s events. 

Dameon Pierce is the only threat the Eagles are concerned with, given Brandin Cooks is now ruled out for tonight’s contest. If the Texans keep this game close, Pierce would need to have 25 touches and a score at a minimum, hypothetically putting him right in the consideration atop the optimal board. He’s showing ownership leverage and is reasonably priced,  offering value if you are already looking to fade Philadelphia tonight. If the Eagles can shut him down, we can’t still be sure that the Texans will reach double-digit points. 

FLEX OPTIONS:

Davis Mills doesn’t give us much to get excited about especially given the depleted playmakers around him. He’s projected to be under-owned and could be in store for garbage time passing attempts that would generally give us some hope for backdoor value, but not in this scenario. Given all the questions with everyone available besides Pierce, he could give us some value in being under-owned instead of throwing darts at the door with everyone else.

Phillip Dorsett is set to be the WR1, with Chris Moore elevated up the depth chart without Cooks. Dorsett has combined for eight targets over the past two weeks giving us some hope for him to lead the way in volume. Tyron Johnson, being minimally priced, is a name to watch as he should eat up the majority of snaps as the WR3.

DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert aren’t priced too far apart, even though Smitty costs more, while both have had similar offensive workloads. DeVonta’s ceiling is much higher than Goedert with Goedert having a safer floor. Houston defends the tight end position better than most imagine, so given the optimal probability advantage with DeVonta, he is where we’ll side. 

Rex Burkhead and Boston Scott offer value on this slate as the two primary backup running backs. Burkhead’s possible increased receiving workload and Scott’s potential garbage time work if Sanders hits the showers early offer upside plays that bring financial flexibility.

There is cheap value available with the three tight ends, who should have more than minimal pass-catching roles in this depleted offense. Brevin Jordan is projected to be the top tight-end option and offers the athleticism necessary to move around, which could warrant an increased workload. 

Continually monitor Quez Watkins’s deep threat ability as he is fully capable of tarnishing a showdown slate with one 60-yard bomb from his quarterback at a low price, who should see at least half the offensive snaps.

The Eagles’ defense is more expensive than we’ve recently seen with any team, and they have led football in turnovers per game. They’ll cause fits for Davis Mills and can prove incredibly valuable, especially if Pierce is a non-factor since there is no one else.