It’s Week 5, and the successful players likely have figured out the right combinations for winning on a regular basis in DFS Fantasy Football. If you have found something that works for you, do not get cute and change things up. Stick with it. They’re called trends for a reason.
The trends I have been finding most successful are starting running backs against the Cleveland Browns. Yes, last week I chose RB Melvin Gordon to have a breakout over the dynamic RB Danny Woodhead, and that did cost me, but I still ended up in the black thanks to other areas. The Oakland Raiders have allowed an NFL-high six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and they’re making everyone look like Rob Gronkowski when playing against them. Keep hammering on that trend until the Raiders figure out a way to make it stop. The Kansas City Chiefs have also struggled mightily against the pass. Until their leaky pass defense can put make adjustments, there is no reason to get away from what is working. As mentioned, don’t get cute and don’t try and re-invent the wheel.
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FantasyAces.com salaries included below where applicable. (*** salaries subject to change ***)
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver ($7,350 at OAK): Manning and the Broncos should enjoy a big game in the Bay Area this weekend. While Vegas is calling for a total of just 44 in this one, you can expect a shootout. The over is 7-0 in Oakland’s past seven against AFC foes, and 6-1 in their past seven overall. And, the over has hit in eight of the past 11 meetings in this rivalry. Yes, this is a Fantasy column and not a gambling column, and we definitely don’t need to go there with that hot-topic discussion. But it is worth looking at trends and totals from that part of the world when projecting Fantasy points, as traditionally high-scoring games tend to mean higher-scoring Fantasy totals, and there is nothing illegal or wrong with that information.
Denver has also done very well against their rivals recently, and Oakland ranks last in the AFC allowing 310.5 yards per game through the air with eight touchdowns allowed. The Raiders have also allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second only to Indianapolis, a team which has already played its fifth game.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans ($4,550 at PHI): Cooks and the Saints should be able to move the ball in what could be a track meet in Philly. The Eagles pass defense has given up 276.5 yards per game through the air, although just six touchdowns. Still, they have been good for 11 pass plays of 20 or more yards, and that number figures to climb against Drew Brees and company. Normally the Saints aren’t great outdoors, but that’s usually on natural grass and not fieldturf. Look for plenty of big numbers from New Orleans.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore ($5,300 vs. CLE): The Browns have had a hard time stopping the run, and with the Ravens banged up at the wide receiver spot they will likely depend on the run more than ever. That’s good news for Forsett and his DFS owners. The Browns have been trucked for 141.5 rushing yards per game, 31st in the NFL, giving up five runs of 20 or more yards which is worst in the league. They are also the only team to allow two runs of 40 or more yards while registering just one fumble.
BARGAIN BIN VALUES AND CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST ($2,650 vs. JAC): The Buccaneers are a nice sleeper play against a Jacksonville Jaguars offense which has mustered just 15.5 points per game. The Bucs should be able to create a couple of turnovers and get pressure on the quarterback, too.
Owen Daniels, TE, Denver ($4,000 at OAK): As mentioned above, the Raiders have been horrific against opposing tight ends, allowing an NFL-high 32 receptions and six touchdowns through four games. The tight end position has averaged 97.0 yards against the Raiders, too, also most in the NFL. Daniels enters play with a pair of touchdown grabs in the past two games, but he still has a dirt-cheap price. Take advantage.
Matt Jones, RB, Washington ($4,200 at ATL): Jones and the Redskins rush offense should enjoy a strong afternoon in their game on the fast track in Atlanta. While the Falcons have allowed only 85.2 yards per game on the ground, they have also given up an NFL-high seven rushing touchdowns through four games. That makes Jones a solid speculative play as a low-end RB2 or ‘flex’ option.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago ($3,800 at KC): Drew Dinkmeyer’s favorite wide receiver might be pushing others over the hump in Milly Makers this weekend. Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) is a question mark with his hamstring after missing practice Friday, officially listed as questionable on the injury report. Some Chicago beat writers project him to sit, and Eddie Royal (ankle) also has a bum wheel. That means Wilson could be in line for plenty of targets against one of the league’s worst pass Ds. The Chiefs have allowed 295.5 yards per game and a league-high 11 passing touchdowns. Someone will have to be under those passes, and Wilson is a good bet to go for high numbers than his averages.