FANTASY FOOTBALL: Five Misleading Point Projections For Week 8
In the NFL, garbage time is looked down upon. “DeAndre Hopkins had 15 targets, but 12 of them came in garbage time!” is a constant refrain you will hear from fans. “T.Y. Hilton had two touchdowns in garbage time last week!” which means they definitely don’t count evidently. However, the beauty of fantasy football is that the garbage time points count just as much as the tight game points do. In standard leagues, 10 yards will give you a point no matter if it’s in the first quarter in a 0-0 game or 41-0 in the 4th quarter. Generally, fantasy analysts will discount these points as major aberrations in the scoring, unlikely to be repeated ever again. In certain cases, this is not unreasonable. However, in many instances, garbage time is the norm.
This shouldn’t come as a major shock to anyone, but the Houston Texans are a terrible football team. I don’t care how many meetings that Ryan Mallett slept through or how many flights he missed, he wasn’t going to help this hopeless team. The Texans already brutal team lost their best player this past Sunday, meaning that garbage time isn’t ending anytime soon. So for those Nate Washington haters out there, you have reason to be believe that there could be more where last week’s breakout came from. Garbage time is one of the major reasons that Blake Bortles is a top ten fantasy quarterback. He makes a ton of terrible decisions, but hey they mostly only result in -2 for us. All those late, fourth quarter touchdowns to Allen Hurns are incredibly welcome to us. Keep the garbage time coming terrible teams!
Speaking of garbage time (and not with Katie Nolan), let’s check out how our projections from last week did.
LAST WEEK’S FOX SPORTS (POWERED BY WHATIFSPORTS.COM) PROJECTIONS
Latavius Murray (16.20 points, Under) – The matchup has this written all over it. Coming off a bye for the Raiders, against the team that allows the most fantasy points to running backs in the league, it seemed like an obvious play here. Hell, in DFS last week I even chose Latavius Murray, perhaps in an effort to hedge my bets. Instead, I hit it in the sweet spot. I wound up winning money playing DFS, and thanks to having zero participation in the passing game, Murray finished with 85 yards rushing and a touchdown, good for 14.5 points. That’s perfectly acceptable in DFS and under the projected 16.20 points. Thanks for not throwing him the ball Derek Carr!
Julio Jones (11.50 points, Over) – It may have taken 17 targets, but the best wide receiver got the job done for us. Nine receptions, 92 yards and a touchdown later Julio Jones smashed the over on this one. In fact the 17 targets he had last week, was the second most Julio has seen all season, partially thanks to Leonard Hankerson leaving the game early. While the matchup against Blidi Wreh-Wilson perhaps didn’t produce the 40 point output we hoped for, his production was more than good enough.
Allen Hurns (8.30 points, Over) – Remember that whole garbage time rant, like 300 or so words ago. As an Allen Hurns owner everywhere, I am just overly grateful. Hurns has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, although the last two games they were both value savers. Two weeks ago, he had a complete garbage time TD in a meaningless spot. Last week, in London, Hurns’ touchdown grab saved both fantasy team and the Jaguars. Despite being targeted eight times, Hurns had just two receptions, for 53 yards to go along with the touchdown. That’s 12 points. The only thing stopping Hurns from scoring another touchdown this week is that pesky bye. We’ll miss you Allen!
Mike Wallace (9.20 points, Under) – For once we absolutely nailed this one. Stefon Diggs continued his meteoric rise from fifth round draft pick that is a weekly inactive, to a starter and favorite target of Teddy Bridgewater. Wallace was targeted just five times, compared to the nine for Stefon Diggs. Wallace caught four of those passes, for just 35 yards didn’t have this awesome touchdown grab. Despite really liking Mike Wallace this year, he’s simply a complimentary player in this Vikings offense. In fact, really every player besides Diggs and Adrian Peterson is an afterthought for the Vikings. This is kind of a shame, since I was in love with Kyle Rudolph headed into the year. Good thing it was my man Kyle that had the cheap touchdown last week and not Wallace.
Benjamin Watson (6 points, Under) – Coming off a career game where he was targeted 12 times, we thought there was no way he would be able to come close to repeating it. He didn’t, but he wasn’t a total disaster either. In a season where tight end has been a relative black hole, Watson had four catches for 59 yards. In standard leagues, that’s good for 5.9 points and in PPR leagues, close to double digits. The projection was right on for the old veteran, ruining our perfect week in the process.
After going 4-1 this week (seemingly our best week ever), we’ve improved our seasonal total to 13-15 and are back on the right track. There’s only one entity that can get us back over the hump and that’s FFToday!
THIS WEEK’S FFTODAY PROJECTIONS:
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA (17.5 points) – It’s amazing how just two weeks can change everything. With a new coach and a simplifying of the offense, Lamar Miller has gone from fantasy disappointment, to reliable fantasy commodity. It’s been two consecutive weeks, where Miller has only had to play the first half, and on both occasions he dominated the box score. He had over 100 yards rushing in both outings, as well as a touchdown. Last week, he put up a total of over 230 yards and two touchdowns. This week, we think he’s going to be due for an epic letdown. Playing against an undefeated Patriots team, on a night where we hate having any fantasy players, it seems like a major recipe for a flop. Everyone knows that Bill Belichick schemes against the opponent’s best player. There’s little doubt that for Miami it’s Miller. Under
Chris Polk, RB, HOU (6 points) – We will again reference the garbage time intro from high up above. Over the past several weeks, quietly, Chris Polk has seemingly usurped the backup running back job away Alfred Blue. While the masses spent a ton of money on Polk, the savvy fantasy owner grabbed Polk. Even if the isn’t the man, Polk will still have a good amount of value, as one of the passing down backs for Houston. Although garbage time may not be aplenty against the Titans, Polk is going to find himself in there often, once the Texans finally realize how overmatched Alfred Blue is. Polk surprises the fantasy world, but not us on Sunday. Over
John Brown, WR, ARZ (13.0 points) – Many experts thought we were due for a major breakout campaign for John Brown this season. They weren’t kidding. Since week four, Brown has yet to have a game fewer than 60 yards receiving or without at least four catches. In that time, he has also caught a pair of touchdown passes for the prolific Cardinals offense. Carson Palmer looks for Brown all over the field, and even while dealing with an injury coming into Monday Night Football, Brown still came down with 12.5 fantasy points. Now, even more recovered from last week’s injury, I think Brown has a big game against an overmatched Cleveland defense. Over
Roddy White, WR, ATL (12.0 points) – We get that Leonard Hankerson is injured. We get that Tampa Bay allows the fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. We even get that Roddy is coming off his best game since week one last week. This all sounds great, except when you remember the fact that it’s Roddy White. A Roddy White that has looked way past his prime all season long. A Roddy White, whose “best game since week one” a three catch, 48 yard performance. Hankerson’s injury will push even more targets to the unstoppable Julio Jones. White will continue to be a relative afterthought in this offense and we don’t believe he comes close to approaching this point total. Under
Tyler Eifert, TE CIN (12.5 points) – Coming out of their bye week, expect the Bengals to make a concerted effort to get the ball to Eifert. He has scored in back to back games for the first time since weeks one and two and now facing a Steelers team that is the third worst against the tight end this year, makes this a prime opportunity for Eifert to go off. There is no doubt that the Bengals have a ton of playmakers on this team, with AJ Green and Marvin Jones definitely having the ability to go off, but this week we expect top five fantasy quarterback Andy Dalton to target Eifert more often than not.
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