Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds: Aaron Rodgers Does the Most with the Least

Year after year, Aaron Rodgers proves he’s the best in the league and continues to drag the Green Bay Packers to the top of the NFL standings. Sportsbooks expect the 38-year-old to make a sincere playoff run, despite the limited talent on offense. That’s true again in 2022, as BetMGM has the three-time defending NFC North Champs priced with the fifth-shortest odds at +1200 to win the Super Bowl ahead of Week 1.

Green Bay seemingly got worse this offseason, failing to surround Rodgers with the talent necessary to make another run. Still, even if Rodgers regresses, the Packers’ defense is good enough that they don’t need their quarterback to be the best player on the field every week to win. 

Matt LaFleur’s Defensive Scheme

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Matt LaFleur has built a system around Rodgers, unlocking the Packers’ full potential. Although the offense gets a lot of recognition for the Packers’ three straight 13-win seasons, the defense has been an undervalued part of their success. 

Green Bay has finished top ten in total defense in each of the last two seasons while also sitting in the top half of the league in scoring defense in all three years under LaFleur. Continuity has helped the Packers’ defense maintain the status quo over that stretch, with no significant personnel adjustment over the past few seasons. 

A few additions this past offseason should yield a positive result. Jarran Reed joined the Pack as a free agent, solidifying the defensive line. Additionally, the team used their first-round selection on linebacker Quay Walker who starts the season sandwiched between former first-round pick Rashan Gary and All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell. That’s an intimidating defense that can disrupt opponents passing and rushing attacks.

Defending has been a priority under LaFleur, and irrespective of Rodgers’s effectiveness, the Packers’ defense will keep them in games.

Rodgers vs. Father Time

Every time Rodgers steps onto the gridiron, he’s competing against the top athletes in the world. However, at 38 years old, he’s also competing against the clock. Age hasn’t limited Rodgers’s efforts over the last couple of years, with the four-time MVP continuing to rank among the best quarterbacks in the league. Yet, it may be prudent to expect some backsliding from Rodgers, who has been operating above expected values over the last couple of seasons.

Since 2020, the California Golden Bears product has led the NFL in touchdown percentage and quarterback rating while ranking near the top of the list in completion percentage and Adjusted Yards Gained per Pass Attempt. The problem is that he’s elevated his metrics beyond his career averages, setting him on the inevitable path with regression. 

It’s not impossible that Rodgers will maintain his form, but losing two of his top three receivers won’t help his cause in 2022. 

BetMGM Super Bowl Insights and Analysis

The Packers have every reason to believe in Rodgers and LaFleur, but they also have a playoff reputation to dismantle. Green Bay has asserted itself over the rest of the NFC during the regular season, only to fall flat on its faces in the playoffs. Without any meaningful additions in the offseason, expecting them to improve their postseason performances is unfair.

Other NFC teams have spent years developing talent or acquiring win-now players in the offseason, which Green Bay missed the boat on. An in-season trade for a top wide receiver may be the best way for the Packers to extend their current window. But, at the current price and roster composition, the Packers are a hard pass in the futures market. 

Prove me wrong, Green Bay.