New York Jets (+148) vs. New England Patriots (-176) Total: 38.5 (O -105, U -115)
Not long ago, these two had their first meeting of the season, where the Patriots defeated the Jets 22-17 on the road. These teams are neck-and-neck in the AFC East, with the Jets at 6-3 and the Patriots at 5-4. This game could have plenty of playoff indications in both the Wild Card and divisional races.
Interestingly, both teams have a clear focus on running the football, which is what we saw in the first matchup. Neither team is confident in letting their quarterbacks drop back and throw 35 times, so expect to see a persistent run game, making it difficult for either side to pull away. The Patriots are favored by 3.5 at home, but you have to factor in Bill Belichick’s dominance of the Jets, which has him go 34-10 against his AFC East foe. That stat doesn’t provide much confidence in the Jets, especially with the Patriots at home and both teams coming off a bye.
Even with the Jets coming off a big win over the Buffalo Bills, it’s hard to fade the Patriots playing at home. New England’s moneyline price isn’t super appealing at -176, but much like their earlier matchup, you can expect the Patriots to pull away in the second half. Targeting the Pats to cover -3.5 has some value at -105.
Best Bet: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
With these teams focused on the ground game and defensive play, it’s not shocking to see a total set under 40 at 38.5. With them combining for 39 points three weeks ago, the 38.5 total is pretty much the sweet spot. There has been plenty of prep time for both squads after their bye weeks, which should make for stronger defensive play and an even lower-scoring matchup than previously. It’s hard to see either team moving the ball effectively. Look to the total in this matchup and bet the under 38.5 at -115.
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