Let Vegas Help You Pick A Fantasy Defense
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Once bye weeks hit, like they have in Week 4, your roster management becomes more important than ever. Your key to DST streaming success is in the hands of the handicapping goons in Vegas.
When six NFL teams go on bye at once (like this week, Week 9 and Week 10), you suddenly might find yourself looking for a quarterback, tight end, kicker or defense to start. Since most Fantasy Football owners choose to only roster ONE of each of those players on their team, bye weeks force them to look to the waiver wire for an interim starter.
Today, we’re dealing with Fantasy defenses and a great trick for streaming them from week to week by using point spreads and over-unders. Unless you drafted the Seahawks defense this summer, you should cut whichever defense you have that’s on a bye this week, save that roster spot for a promising running back or wide receiver, and pick up a free agent defense.
Vegas Over-Under Lines and Point Spreads
By taking the upcoming matchups and looking at the over-under numbers, then subtracting the point spreads the favorite is expected to win by, you can get a great idea of how much a defense is expected to hold an opposing offense down to.
Keeping offenses from scoring is certainly just one way to judge the prospects of a Fantasy defense, but in reality, it’s one of the easiest ways to get a wide angle view on the whole situation. If offenses aren’t scoring touchdowns, they’re not picking up a lot of yardage, which means they’re likely getting sacked and turning the ball over.
The numbers on the matchups are taken directly from Wednesday’s numbers at VegasInsider.com. The ownership percentages are from CBSSports.com’s Fantasy Football leagues.
Chargers DST vs. Jacksonville
Owned in 66 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 44.5
Point spread: Chargers -13
Projected final score: San Diego 29, Jacksonville 16
Dolphins DST at Oakland
Owned in 56 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 40.0
Point spread: Dolphins -4
Projected final score: Miami 22, Oakland 18
Steelers DST vs. Tampa Bay
Owned in 64 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 45
Point spread: Steelers -7.5
Projected final score: Pittsburgh 26, Tampa Bay 19
Ravens DST vs. Carolina
Owned in 66 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 40.5
Point spread: Ravens -2
Projected final score: Baltimore 21, Carolina 19
So do your best to pick up these defenses this week to replace your regular Fantasy DST, and use this same methodology going forward. Daily Fantasy Football players can also use this same concept to find the highest projected scoring offenses for stacking lineups.
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