Lions-Packers DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Aaron Rodgers has the highest ownership projection on our board as he and the Green Bay Packers will host the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football in a DFS showdown contest. Rodgers has not shown up lately to give us complete confidence from a fantasy perspective. Yes, he’s done what he’s had to do to put his team in a spot to win four straight and be in the position to earn a playoff berth tonight, but the eye-popping numbers are not there. Over the past four weeks, he’s averaged only 202 passing yards and thrown just four touchdown passes. He has the ceiling, yet we’d rather go with other routes at the multiplier.

Either Aaron Jones or even AJ Dillon is our favorite pivot off of Rodgers here. Jones is the flashier play with the steep financial cost and might have the highest ceiling on this slate. Detroit is vulnerable all over the place defensively, and if Jones gets rolling, either on the ground or through the air, they’ll keep feeding him. AJ Dillon will come in highly owned, given his affordability, but we don’t care, as over the past five weeks, he’s found the endzone six times. Getting him into your lineups regardless is needed, but throwing him in at the multiplier will give you some leverage.

Green Bay’s pass defense is much stronger than their run D, so we’re looking at Detroit’s backfield for possible multiplier plays. Both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams aren’t overly priced, and a large portion of this offense should run through them if they want to win this game. Jamaal Williams will be touchdown dependent which is a good spot for him as he leads the league in TDs, but he only has found the endzone once over the past four weeks. Instead, we go with D’Andre Swift here as his health is peaking, and he could be the best player on the field, coming off of a two-touchdown game last week. When the ball is in Swift’s hands, good things happen.


We view the Lions’ game plan as ground-oriented, so we’re not crazy about Jared Goff tonight. He only threw for 137 yards, his lowest mark of the season, against the Packers in their first matchup. He’s been phenomenal of late, with three games north of 330 yards over his past five, so the ownership leverage could provide value if you expect the Lions to win this game. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the league’s best slot receiver and a PPR monster, as he’s averaged nearly seven receptions per game this season. A lot has been made about how dominant the Packers’ secondary is, which has been certainly warranted, but St. Brown has the optimal matchup, operating primarily out of the slot. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, so we’d much rather roster him at the flex.

We’ll favor Allen Lazard over Christian Watson tonight, given Lazard’s financial advantage and higher target upside. A lot was deservedly made about Watson’s crazy touchdown streak, but obviously, that could not last. Given his pricing, we instead flip to Lazard here, who has a longer streak of consistency with his quarterback and has shown a higher target ceiling. 

After Amon-Ra, our favorite play out of the rest of the Lions’ receiving group is going to be Jameson Williams. Chark has done well in his role and has been a serious vertical threat on the outside, but Chark likely will have Jaire Alexander across from him a ton. Williams’s only catch of the season this year went for a 41-yard touchdown, and he is continuing to get more acclimated into the offense following his injury. As the 12th overall pick, how do you not get him more involved in a potential win-or-go-home game? At his price, we love the upside. 

At near equal pricing of DJ Chark, we feel more comfortable backing Romeo Doubs as he’s averaged five targets per game since returning from injury. This is a high-floor play to make at a reasonable price, so you know what you’re going to get out of him.

Out of all the tight ends on this slate, we’ll be chalky and tout Robert Tonyan. Not because of Robert Tonyan, but because of his matchup. The Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, the most in the league, so we like the opportunity here with RT.