MNF Player Props: Commanders Best Off on the Ground
So much for finding out how the Philly fans would react to former Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz returning to start against his former team. Wentz remains sidelined with a finger injury, and his homecoming will have to wait. That said, we anticipate it won’t be a pleasant experience for his understudy as the Washington Commanders should keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.
All odds and props are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
QB Taylor Heinicke Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-141)
Heading into hostile Philadelphia will be a tough task for Taylor Heinicke, facing the undefeated Eagles. Philly is one of the best pass defenses in the league and has been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles’ 177.6 yards allowed through the air is the second-best mark in the NFL and holding opposing QBs to a rating of 68.0 tops the league. Philadelphia also sits second with 12 interceptions, so make sure you take a look at our honorable mentions below.
Heinicke has thrown a pick in three straight games and should struggle against a solid secondary. The Commanders’ pivot has gone under this passing yards number in two of his past three, averaging 175 yards in those two games. In his only start against the Eagles last year, Heinicke was held to just an 81.6 rating.
While Washington is expected to trail for most of this game and may be forced to air it out, establishing the run game and playing the clock is in its best interest.
RB Brian Robinson Jr. Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The man the Commanders should establish the run game with is rookie Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson has been splitting backfield duties with Antonio Gibson but has out-touched him in all five starts this season. Washington appears to be leaning toward the first-year-man over their vet Gibson. Robinson has exceeded the number in three of his past four games while also hitting double-digit attempts in three of four.
Not only will Philadelphia’s stingy secondary suggest Washington should keep the ball on the ground, but its struggle against the run should also be a factor. The Eagles have given up the fourth-highest yards-per-carry at 5.2, so if BRJ again gets double-digit touches, he should fly over 34 yards. Philly also ranks in the league’s bottom half, allowing over 120 yards per game.
The Commanders ran for 87 yards against the Eagles in their Week 3 loss to Philadelphia. Robinson did not suit up in September for that one, but Gibson cleared this number with 38 yards on the ground. Washington was able to keep the time of possession close in their last meeting with Philly thanks to 22 run plays and should continue that trend tonight.
Honorable Mentions: Taylor Heinicke Over 0.5 Interceptions (-208), Curtis Samuel Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115), Brian Robinson Over 10.5 yards Longest Rush (-118)
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