We’re coming in lukewarm after going 3-2 on the Thursday nighter but don’t forget we were red-hot for a perfect 5-0 last week on Monday Night Football. What better way to have a fiesta of perfecto picks than on Mexican Monday as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals clash in Mexico City tonight. You’ll see why the Niners utilize their giant pass catcher tonight while the Cards are stifled on the ground. Vamos!
All odds and props are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
TE George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (+130)
First off, take a look at the price tag attached to this prop play. We rarely get such a value price on such a good-looking prop.
While George Kittle is not having the kind of season we’ve been treated to the past couple of years when he was rivaling the top tight ends in the game, tonight is the perfect get-right spot for him to pick up his pace. The Arizona Cardinals have not only struggled to defend the pass but have particularly had tight-end trouble.
The middle of the field has been exposed against ‘Zona as they, by far, allow the most production to tight ends. Arizona has given up 75 catches or 7.5 per game to opposing TEs. Those numbers are well above the second-worst team, the Atlanta Falcons, who’ve allowed 62 catches but have also played one more game than the Cardinals.
Of course, with that many receptions, yards are bound to follow. The Cards’ 778 yards given up to tight ends are 100 more than any other team in the NFL.
Arizona’s secondary does not discriminate, as they have been beaten by those that play every position. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most catches overall and rank in the bottom ten in pass yards allowed per game.
While Kittle’s yardage prop may be a bit on the safer side, as you’ll see in our honorable mentions, getting +130 is just too tempting not to roll with tonight in Mexico.
RB James Conner Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
It has not been a banner year for James Conner following an outstanding season in 2021. The Cards’ back went over 1,100 yards from scrimmage last year but won’t come close to those stats in 2022. While Kittle will have a get-right opportunity against a shoddy Cards’ secondary, it will be a get-wrong game for Conner facing the stingy 49ers rush D.
San Francisco’s 82.7 ground yards allowed per game is just a half-yard out of being the league’s top-ranked rush defense. The Niners have the best yard per-carry number in the NFL, allowing just 3.4, and are also a top-5 team in attempts per game.
Conner has already missed three games with rib issues, an ailment he did play through last season. Even when on the field, the former Pittsburgh Steeler is running at one of the lowest per-carry clips of his career while on pace for one of his lowest receiving-yard seasons ever. Keep that in mind when checking out below’s honorable mentions.
Conner will still out-attempt his understudies tonight, but against this ferocious Niners defensive line, it won’t matter. Look for a low-yardage game from the Erie, Pennsylvania, native.
Honorable Mentions: George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115), James Conner Under 75.5 Rushing+Receving Yards (-118), Jimmy Garoppolo Over 250.5 Pass Yards (-118)
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