We’re coming in off our hottest game of the year after a successful Thursday nighter. Our TNF main slate props came through, as Miles Sanders and Davis Mills did exactly what we predicted. We also went 3-1-1 in our honorable mentions. Brandin Cooks did not suit up, so his selection was void.
Let’s keep it rolling as the Baltimore Ravens head to the Big Easy for a Monday night clash with the New Orleans Saints. Tonight will be all about the two sides of one player.
All odds and props are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
RB Alvin Kamara Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-128)
The New Orleans Saints receivers’ room has gotten smaller in the first half of the season. Michael Thomas looks like he’s out for the season with a toe injury, playing just three games this year. Jarvis Landry has not played since Week 4 as the veteran wideout is dealing with an ankle injury. Landry participated in practice this week, albeit in a limited fashion. Even if he does suit up tonight, he may not be 100 percent.
Without key cogs lining up for the offense, the Saints are best-served game planning around their franchise back in the passing game. Alvin Kamara is a do-it-all type of player and has proven his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. The former Tennessee Volunteer is coming off season-highs with ten targets, nine catches, and 96 receiving yards against the Las Vegas Raiders last week. The Ravens are even worse than Vegas defending the pass.
Baltimore has given up the fifth most passing yards this season, allowing a 266.8 clip per game. The Ravens have also been burned for the seventh most yards through the air by running backs and are near the bottom ten in total tackles. Kamara is a guy that can break a few and turn a short screen into a substantial gain. We’re rolling on Air AK while keeping the ball off the ground.
RB Alvin Kamara Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
As bad as Baltimore is against the pass, they’re as good at defending the run. The Ravens are giving up the third-fewest ground yards per game at just 97.5 a week. Teams are becoming increasingly aware of staying away from the rushing attack, as Baltimore’s 22.4 attempts against per game are the second-fewest in the NFL this year. Opposing squads are also well aware of the gap between Baltimore’s ground and air defense, undoubtedly motivating teams to keep the ball in the air and off the ground.
Alvin Kamara is not the type of player to usually be kept off the ground, but because he is such a multi-faceted type of player, he can still do damage when the run game is not the priority. We mentioned his recent pass-catching performances earlier, and facing a stout Ravens run D paired with a suspect secondary should be motivation enough to use Kamara as a pass blocker and catcher on Monday night.
The 27-year-old talent has gone under this total three times this season and has only once faced a top-ten rush defense. That D was the Atlanta Falcons, who held him to just 39 yards on the ground. Kamara has hit the 20-attempt mark just once this season, with New Orleans regularly having him available out of the backfield to catch passes.
The structure of the Ravens’ defense and the need for pass catchers with a banged-up receivers’ room point to New Orleans airing out the ball as the priority, with the running game taking a back seat.
Honorable Mentions: Andy Dalton Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-113), Lamar Jackson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113), Chris Olave Over 64.5 receiving yards (-113)
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