Few things bring as much joy and uncertainty as betting on the NFL. Teams adjust game planning week-to-week, the full extent of injuries is rarely known, and there’s a seemingly neverending way of quantifying a team’s success and failures. Still, there are plenty of angles to take, and we’re assessing the best bets in our weekly NFL parlay breakdown.
Bets: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 51.5, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Over 50.5
Payout: $364.81 on a $100 bet
The Jacksonville Jaguars know they can’t trade offensive blows with the Kansas City Chiefs and still expect to come out on top. At least, they should. We expect them to lean into their solid defensive play to keep things competitive in their Divisional Round matchup. Even though they gave up a lot of points against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, it wasn’t due to poor defensive play. The Jags held LA to 320 yards, the most they’ve allowed since Week 15. Kansas City’s offense overshadows their outstanding defense, but don’t sleep on the Chiefs’ ability to shut down opponents. The AFC West champions allowed more than 333 yards since Week 13 and have limited their opponents to an average of 299.6 yards per game since their bye. Although we’ve seen both offenses move the ball downfield, we expect defenses to shine in this one.
That’s very different from what we expect when the Buffalo Bills host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Josh Allen has been proficient in commanding the Bills’ offense. Buffalo has gone north of 400 yards in three of their past four, eclipsing the 30-point threshold in each contest. That’s trouble for the reigning AFC Champions, who’ve allowed an average of 369.2 yards per game over their last six road contests. Nevertheless, we’ve seen an efficient Bengals’ attack this season, ranking seventh in the NFL in scoring offense. Moreover, they have the playmakers to break down the Bills D and the experience to handle the pressure. Buffalo has no qualms about getting into track meets, and the Bengals can keep pace.
Bets: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs -8.5, New York Giants +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Payout: $364.81 on a $100 bet
If you haven’t already, you’ll start hearing comparisons between this year’s Jags squad and last year’s Bengals team. But don’t take that as an insinuation that Jacksonville can replicate Cincinnati’s success. The moment was too big for Trevor Lawrence early in the wild-card round, with several bad turnovers and Los Angeles jumping out to a massive lead. Those issues will be compounded by playing in a hostile environment and will not be easily corrected against a superior Chiefs team.
Kansas City has out-gained their opponents in eight of their last ten, usually by a substantive margin. Still, they’ve only covered the spread twice over that stretch. Outcomes are incompatible with performances, and we should see the Chiefs excel throughout the playoffs. This line has come down off opening and is unlikely to get much lower. As such, we’re taking a stance on Kansas City as they look to make their fourth straight AFC Championship game.
The New York Giants pulled off the upset against the Minnesota Vikings, setting the stage for a third meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC East winners have been ineffective at covering the spread, falling below the betting threshold in four straight. Conversely, the Giants have five consecutive ATS victories, covering the number in seven of their previous eight. We expect those trends to hold steady, with New York covering anything over a touchdown.
Eagles vs. Giants One Game Parlay
Bets: Halftime/End Game Result – Tie/Eagles, Over 48.5
Payout: $2,300.00 on a $100 bet
We’re going for the bag with our final parlay, taking advantage of the BetMGM One Game Parlay. We’ve connected the dots for a halftime/end game result and the over 48.5.
Week 18 might not offer the best perspective on what to expect from these teams, as not all the starters were in the lineup for that battle. However, there was no shortage of offense when these division foes squared off earlier in the year. All told, there were 70 points scored and nearly 750 yards of total offense. The Giants are flourishing, recording 394 or more yards in three of their past four. With Jalen Hurts under center and closer to full health, we’re anticipating a strong showing from the Eagles.
As noted, this game should be closer than the betting line implies. Philadelphia needed the rest, but it could come at the expense of their effectiveness early. Further, New York came out of the gates hot against the Vikings and should duplicate that against Philadelphia. We’re betting the Giants and Eagles head into the halftime tied, with the Eagles pulling away late.
Combining both plays yields an attractive +2200 parlay.
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