Few things bring as much joy and uncertainty as betting on the NFL. Teams adjust game planning week-to-week, the full extent of injuries is rarely known, and there’s a seemingly neverending way of quantifying a team’s success and failures. Still, there are plenty of angles to take, and we’re assessing the best bets in our weekly NFL parlay breakdown.
Home Team Parlay
Bets: Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers -2.5, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5
Payout: $364.65 on a $100 bet
A win goes a long way in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers knocked off their former coach Mike McCarthy on Sunday, and suddenly things aren’t as doom and gloomy. Although Packers fans may reject the premise, they have been pretty good all season. Green Bay has a top-ten total defense and ranks in the league’s top half in total offense. The emergence of Christian Watson has stabilized the offense and rejuvenated hope that the Packers can make the most of Aaron Rodgers’s twilight years. Their record doesn’t indicate it, but the Tennessee Titans are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Tennessee ranks dead last in total offense, with the tenth-worst total defense. The Packers are natural progression candidates, and the Titans won’t offer any resistance.
Somehow, T.J. Watt returned just nine weeks after a significant pec injury and subsequent knee operation, giving hope that the Pittsburgh Steelers can make a late-season push for the playoffs. They started on the right foot in Week 10, holding the New Orleans Saints to 186 total yards. The Cincinnati Bengals are a much better team than the Saints, but they’ve struggled on the road. The Bengals per game yardage drops to 290.4 on the road compared to 451.0 as the host. That dichotomy will continue against a fierce Steelers defense.
Points on Points on Points
Bets: Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills Over 47, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Over 49.5
Payout: $364.81 on a $100 bet
Nobody has had an answer for the Buffalo Bills’ offense this year. It’s not coming from a Cleveland Browns squad that couldn’t contain the Miami Dolphins last week and will be playing their second consecutive road game. The Bills have the best-scoring offense at home and the underlying metrics to prop up ongoing success. The Browns have held their own offensively, posting the tenth-best scoring offense and the fifth-most yards. Points should flow naturally in this AFC matchup.
The AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers was flexed into the prime-time spot on Sunday night, and we expect fireworks to ensue. The Chargers’ scoring has taken a hit over the past few weeks, and we expect a more robust effort from them at home against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks in the middle of the pack in total defense and has been susceptible through the air, allowing the eighth-most passing yards in the league. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen returning in Week 11 would go a long way to help this one go over the total, but we trust Justin Herbert and Joshua Palmer to gain yards without them.
Lowly Underdog Combination
Bets: Las Vegas Raiders +125 vs. Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions +155 vs. New York Giants
Payout: $573.75 on a $100 bet
Things haven’t gone well for the Las Vegas Raiders this season. The Indianapolis Colts humbled Derek Carr and company on Sunday, but the Raiders have been better on the road than at home this season. Las Vegas’s metrics improve as the visitors, with the team compiling more yards and allowing fewer. Despite the improved metrics, the Raiders are still looking for their first road win. That should come against a Denver Broncos squad that has been one of the worst offensive units in the league. Denver averages 14.6 points per game, which has dropped to 13.3 over their last three. If either team reaches 17 points, it would be a minor miracle, but the Raiders are the team to back in this inter-divisional battle.
We are taking a stance against the New York Giants for the second week in a row. New York’s underlying metrics are incompatible with their 7-2 record. The Giants were outgained by the Houston Texans on Sunday, needing two turnovers to help them secure the win. They rank in the league’s bottom half in total offense and defense, with -0.75 net yards per play. Detroit’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL, accumulating the ninth-most points and sixth-most yards. Although their defense has been ineffective, the Giants don’t have an imposing offense. Wins are piling up for the Lions, and we like that trend to continue in Week 11.
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