NFL Parlays for Week 12: Potential NFL Parlay Odds & Payouts

Few things bring as much joy and uncertainty as betting on the NFL. Teams adjust game planning week-to-week, the full extent of injuries is rarely known, and there’s a seemingly neverending way of quantifying a team’s success and failures. Still, there are plenty of angles to take, and we’re assessing the best bets in our weekly NFL parlay breakdown.

Turkey Day Trio

Bets: Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions +9, New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 44.5, New England Patriots +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Odds: +582

Payout: $682.19 on a $100 bet

We’ve reached an inflection point of the NFL season. Thanksgiving is just days away, meaning we have a three-game slate to look forward to on Thursday, and bye weeks will soon be a thing of the past. We’ve got plays in each contest for our first parlay. 

Thursday’s opener between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions could feel like a home game for AFC East co-leaders. The Bills were displaced in Week 11, taking to Ford Field after a snowstorm forced the league to change venues. They are back there this week against the host Lions, looking to make it two straight wins. Standing in their way is a Detroit team that has won three consecutive games with one of the top-rated offenses in the league. Buffalo’s defense is giving up nearly 400 yards per game over their past three, leaving the back door open for what should be a Lions’ cover.

Two teams who have emphasized defense more recently are the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. The Giants are allowing an average of 329.7 yards per game over the last three, with the Cowboys holding a more impressive 323.0 mark over the same stretch. Low-scoring games have been a constant for both squads this year, with the teams combining to go 5-13-2 to the under. We’re betting that trend continues Thursday. 

Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys seemed inevitable for the Minnesota Vikings. It was a classic letdown spot after a monumental victory over the Bills the week before. Unfortunately, Week 12’s encounter against the New England Patriots doesn’t offer much reprieve. New England’s defense has been impeccable over its current schedule. The Pats haven’t allowed more than three points since October 30, holding opponents to a cumulative 224 yards over their last two games. Granted, the Vikings’ offense is a class above most, but the magic late-game comebacks are an unsustainable way of winning games. The Patriots’ defense should keep this one within a field goal.

Flying High Offenses

Bets: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Over 47.5, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks Over 47.5

Odds: +264

Payout: $364.81 on a $100 bet

The slumbering Los Angeles Chargers awoke from their offensive coma against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday and are poised for a repeat performance against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12. Arizona ranks in the bottom ten of NFL scoring and total defense, allowing an average of 357.6 yards and 25.8 points. The return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams stimulated the Chargers’ passing game, but the team remains well below last season’s production. With both wide receivers healthy again, we’ve identified the Chargers as positive regression candidates as they work their way back up toward normal ranges. That should result in another high-scoring affair against the Cardinals.

Only a handful of teams have been worse defensively than the Cardinals, but the Las Vegas Raiders are one of the terrible few. The Raiders give up the sixth-most yards and ninth-most points and are poised for another letdown against the Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith has the Seahawks moving the ball downfield, accumulating the 12th-most yards per game. These teams move the ball with enough conviction that it should find its way over the 47.5-point total.

Massive Underdogs

Bets: Chicago Bears +220 vs. New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams +750 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Odds: +2620

Payout: $2,720.00 on a $100 bet

We’re going for the bag with our underdog parlay, backing the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears to win outright.

You wouldn’t know it from their 6-4 record, but the New York Jets have the fifth-worst total offense. They have their defense to thank for keeping them in games, but the Jets have been out-gained in two straight games with -1.6 net yards per play. The Chicago Bears’ weakness has been their defense, which is unlikely to get tested by an ineffective Jets team. Chicago’s chance at victory is better than the implied probability of +220, leaving an edge in backing the visitors.

The Rams are taking on a Kansas City Chiefs poised for regression. The six-time defending AFC West Champs are operating beyond normal ranges over their previous three games, averaging almost 500 yards per game. Although impressive, it’s an untenable position. Their yards per game will eventually drop, taking scoring down with it. Los Angeles didn’t get the win, but they showed some fight against the New Orleans Saints. With a healthy lineup, that upward trajectory should continue. And at +750, it’s worth a gamble that the defending Super Bowl champs show up against the Chiefs.