Packers-Bills DFS Showdown: Injury and Depth Analysis

Free up-to-date projections and optimization tools for all NFL DFS slates are available at For bookmarking purposes, optimal probability simulations and expected ownership projections will be available on a continuous link here.


Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will travel to Buffalo tonight to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. Rodgers’ squad has dropped three straight games as the inexperience of the Packers’ receivers is undercutting Rodgers’ overall value.

Fresh off a bye, everything has gone right for Allen and the Bills as he’s averaged 330 yards and nearly three touchdowns through six games, not to mention the rushing upside he possesses. 


Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been splitting the work in the Green Bay backfield, but Jones has separated himself over the past three weeks. Dillon’s snaps are down, with a season-low 30% snap rate coming last week, along with Jones out-carrying him 30-20 and out-targetting him 17-6 since Week 5.

Dillon is better served to pick up garbage time carries, which isn’t going to happen when you lose three straight weeks, so Buffalo being a double-digit favorite certainly doesn’t help Dillon’s stock.

The recent struggles of the Green Bay receiving room could result in continued high usage for Jones in the passing game, as we saw with his nine-reception game last week. 

Devin Singletary will be the lead back after a substantial volume showing in Week 6, where he had 17 carries and four receptions. Josh Allen’s rushing presence heavily impacts the overall upside, as Allen very well could eat up double-digit carries on an already pass-first team. Week 6 certainly appears to be the outlier as the 9-11 range feels more reasonable with 3-5 targets, ideally, even though there is garbage time upside as a double-digit favorite.

James Cook will be the other back whose ceiling is only a couple of carries on a typical night. 


Allen Lazard has been ruled out for tonight, leaving the receiving room in complete disarray as if it already wasn’t.

Aaron Jones could end up as the WR1 at the end of the night, but for now, we look for Romeo Doubs to elevate into that role. Aaron Rodgers openly criticized the Packers’ young receivers early in the week, with plenty of the focus being directed towards Doubs’ rough Week 7 outing, but who else does Rodgers really have?

Sammy Watkins is a contender, even though we have probably seen enough of his career already.

Christian Watson was brought in to be a difference-maker, and tonight looks to be his best opportunity to show that. Samori Toure and Amari Rodgers should split the rotational work and offer upside if everything else goes south. Rodgers will look across the sideline salivating at Josh Allen’s weapons and can only wish for Romeo Doubs and Co. to turn into that.

Stefon Diggs has averaged about 110 yards per game and has seen at least 11 targets in four of six games this season. Not much else needs to be said about what we can hope for from him.

Gabe Davis will slot in as the WR2 and be a factor for around 5-6 targets after seeing three touchdowns in his last two games.

Isaiah McKenzie will operate primarily out of the slot, with Khalil Shakir being the primary rotational receiver who should see a few looks. 


Robert Tonyan has averaged just over five targets a game this season and will be the receiving option that Rodgers can depend on the most. With a double-digit reception game under his belt this season, there is added upside, assuming the Packers are airing it out and playing catch up.

Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, and Tyler Davis will all be active as depth tight ends, and all could potentially see a target or two, with Lewis leading the way in snaps.

Dawson Knox has underwhelmed thus far this season, as he’s only averaged three receptions in five games.

Quintin Morris will see a fair amount of snaps as the second tight end and should garner a target or two.