So, Um, Kicking An Extra Point Kind Of Isn’t Worth It Anymore
The NBA game changed dramatically once coaches accepted the very basic arithmetic that someone who made three out of six three-pointers had a higher adjusted scoring rate as someone who made four out of six two-pointers. The difference being (besides the number of points being scored), the guy who hits three three-pointers also spreads out the defense on the next trip down the court, enabling more easy scores closer to the basket.
That kind of logic is starting to make sense in the NFL, as the 33-yard extra point is yielding a similar adjusted value to the two-point conversion.
According to the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino, there's a 53.6% chance of converting a two-point conversion on a run play, while the likelihood of hitting the 33-yard extra point currently sits at 93.5%. You're smart, do the math: that means in 100 rushing attempts from the two-yard line after a touchdown, a team should score roughly 107 points. Given that the extra point is only worth one point and it's no longer the sure thing it once was, it is unlikely that kicking it 100 times would yield 100 points, and it certainly wouldn't yield 107 (that's impossible, duh).
Converting two-point conversions at a 46.5% rate -- the exact two-point conversion rate of passing plays, mind you -- would yield the same number of points as the current league average converting extra points. For NFL coaches looking to buck conventional wisdom, this is certainly something to think about.
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